基于小时气温资料的桃树需冷量和需热量研究  

Chilling and Heat Requirement of Peach Tree Based on Hourly Temperature Data

作　　者：朱晓翠 郑健 陈妙金 沈艳 李军[3] 岳俗甲 杨怡曼 ZHU Xiaocui;ZHENG Jian;CHEN Miaojin;SHEN Yan;LI Jun;YUE Sujia;YANG Yiman(Fenghua District Meteorological Bureau of Ningbo,Ningbo,Zhejiang 315500;Fenghua Peach Research Institute,Ningbo,Zhejiang 315500;Shanghai Meteorological Institute,Shanghai 200030)

机构地区：[1]浙江省宁波市奉化区气象局,浙江宁波315500 [2]宁波市奉化区水蜜桃研究所,浙江宁波315500 [3]上海市气候中心,上海200030

出　　处：《中国农学通报》2022年第11期84-88,共5页Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin

基　　金：宁波市气象科技计划项目“宁波市水蜜桃始花期多时间尺度预报模型研究”(NBX2020004C)。

摘　　要：为寻求用气温资料确定桃树需热量和需冷量的途径,本文根据2006—2021年宁波市‘湖景蜜露’初花期和同期气温小时资料,应用变异系数和相关分析方法研究桃树需冷量和需热量。结果表明:宁波市‘湖景蜜露’需冷量为740 h(7.5℃模型),需热量为200℃·d(下限温度为4.5℃)。应用确定的‘湖景蜜露’需热量和需冷量计算了2006—2018年‘湖景蜜露’初花期,拟合值和实际值之间的R^(2)、RMSE分别为0.4639、7.9天(n=13),相关系数(0.6811)通过了显著水平0.05的检验;2019—2021年独立样本检验的RMSE为2.6天,拟合和独立样本检验效果均较好。本文应用气温资料和落叶果树花期资料为确定需冷量和需热量提供了一种新方法,分析结果为‘湖景蜜露’促成栽培和初花期动态预测提供了技术依据。To use temperature data to determine the chilling requirement and heat requirement of peach tree,the coefficient of variation and correlation analysis were adopted in the study based on the data of the beginning date of peach flowering of‘Hujingmilu’in Ningbo and the hourly temperature during the same period from 2006 to 2021.The results showed that the chilling requirement was 740 h based on 7.5℃model and the heat requirement was 200℃·d with the lower limit temperature of 4.5℃of Ningbo‘Hujingmilu’.Using the determined heat and chilling requirement of‘Hujingmilu’to calculate the beginning date of peach flowering from 2006 to 2018,the R^(2)and RMSE between the fitted and actual value were 0.4639 and 7.9 d(n=13)respectively,and the correlation coefficient(0.6811)passed the test at the significance level of 0.05.The RMSE of the independent sample test from 2019 to 2021 was 2.6 d,both the fitting and independent sample tests got good results.This study could provide a method for determining the chilling and heat requirement by using temperature data and the flowering data of deciduous fruit trees,and the results could provide technical support for‘Hujingmilu’cultivation and the dynamic forecast for its beginning date of flowering.

关 键 词：桃树 小时气温 需冷量 需热量 湖景蜜露 落叶果树 花期预测 

分 类 号：S161[农业科学—农业气象学]