CMIP5模式对青藏高原中东部夏季降水双极型模拟能力的评估  

Evaluation of simulation performance of CMIP5 models for the dipole oscillation of summer precipitation over the central and eastern Tibetan Plateau

作　　者：李斐斐 刘朝晖[2] LI Feifei;LIU Zhaohui(Research Institute of Chemical Defense, Academy of Military Sciences, Beijing 102205, China;Shandong Meteorological Observatory, Jinan 250031, China)

机构地区：[1]中国人民解放军军事科学院防化研究院,北京102205 [2]山东省气象台,山东济南250031

出　　处：《海洋气象学报》2022年第2期22-32,共11页Journal of Marine Meteorology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金重大研究计划项目(91737307)。

摘　　要：青藏高原中东部夏季降水主要表现为东北和东南反位相变化的双极型特征。采用经验正交函数(empirical orthogonal function,EOF)分解方法,系统性地评估参与第五次耦合模式比较计划(Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5,CMIP5)历史模拟试验的47个模式对青藏高原中东部夏季降水双极型变化特征的模拟能力。结果表明,大多数模式基本可以反映青藏高原中东部夏季降水东北部和东南部反位相的变化特征。模式间EOF分析结果表明在35°N以南的东西向模拟偏差是CMIP5模式模拟降水空间型态的主要偏差,且大多数模式对时间系数的模拟效果差于空间型态。文中定义了一个综合评估指标Snew来定量描述模式对空间型态、时间系数以及方差贡献的综合模拟效果。由定量评估结果来看,MIROC-ESM、HadGEM2-CC和ACCESS1-0(FIO-ESM、HadGEM2-AO和MIROC-ESM-CHEM)模式对观测降水的EOF1(EOF2)模态的综合模拟能力相对较好,而GISS系列模式、CESM1-CAM5和MPI-ESM-LR(CMCC-CESM、MPI-ESM-MR和GFDL-CM3)模式对观测降水的EOF1(EOF2)模态的综合模拟效果较差。由EOF1和EOF2的综合评估结果来看,MIROC-ESM-CHEM模式对观测降水的EOF1和EOF2模态的综合模拟效果最好。The summer precipitation over the central and eastern Tibetan Plateau(TP)is mainly characterized by a dipole pattern with seesaw changes in the northeast and southeast.Based on the empirical orthogonal function(EOF)analysis,the abilities of 47 models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5(CMIP5)historical experiments to simulate the dipole oscillation of summer precipitation over the central and eastern TP are systematically evaluated.The results shows that most of the models can reproduce the seesaw structure of summer precipitation anomalies in the northeast and southeast of the central and eastern TP.However,the inter-model EOF analysis shows that the east-west simulation deviation in the south of 35°N stands out as the most prominent deviation of CMIP5 models in simulating spatial patterns of precipitation.Most of the models are worse at simulating time coefficients than spatial patterns.A comprehensive evaluation index Snew is defined to quantitatively describe the comprehensive simulation performances of 47 CMIP5 models on spatial patterns,time coefficients,and variance contribution.From the quantitative evaluation results,MIROC-ESM,HadGEM2-CC,and ACCESS1-0(FIO-ESM,HadGEM2-AO,and MIROC-ESM-CHEM)models perform relatively well in the comprehensive simulation on EOF1(EOF2)mode of observed precipitation,while the GISS series models,CESM1-CAM5,and MPI-ESM-LR(CMCC-CESM,MPI-ESM-MR,and GFDL-CM3)models have poor comprehensive simulation performance on EOF1(EOF2)mode of observed precipitation.Based on the comprehensive evaluation results of EOF1 and EOF2,it is found that MIROC-ESM-CHEM model has the best comprehensive simulation performance on the two leading EOF modes of observed summer precipitation over the central and eastern TP.

关 键 词：青藏高原中东部夏季降水 双极型 CMIP5 综合评估 

分 类 号：P426.6[天文地球—大气科学及气象学] P462.5