台风“利奇马”引发山东极端暴雨的多尺度特征分析  

Multi-scale characteristics of extreme rainstorm caused by Typhoon Lekima in Shandong

作　　者：高晓梅 李峰[3] 王文波 李晓利 封亚琼 马守强 GAO Xiaomei;LI Feng;WANG Wenbo;LI Xiaoli;FENG Yaqiong;MA Shouqiang(Key Laboratory for Meteorological Disaster Prevention and Mitigation of Shandong, Jinan 250031, China;Weifang Meteorological Bureau, Weifang 261011, China;Shandong Meteorological Bureau, Jinan 250031, China)

机构地区：[1]山东省气象防灾减灾重点实验室,山东济南250031 [2]潍坊市气象局,山东潍坊261011 [3]山东省气象局,山东济南250031

出　　处：《海洋气象学报》2022年第2期33-43,共11页Journal of Marine Meteorology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(41775044,41675046);中国气象局预报员专项(CMAYBY2016-041);环渤海区域科技协同创新基金项目(QYXM201707);山东省气象局重点课题(2018sdqxz08)。

摘　　要：利用常规气象资料、NCEP FNL 1°×1°再分析、风廓线雷达、云顶亮温(black-body temperature,TBB)及逐时自动气象站降雨量资料,对2019年8月10—13日由台风“利奇马”引起山东极端暴雨的多尺度特征进行分析。结果表明:(1)此次台风特大暴雨主要为中低纬系统相互作用及台风倒槽本体直接影响产生,其与冷空气密切相关。冷暖空气交汇有利于山东大部地区稳定性降水长时间持续发生。冷空气从低层侵入暖湿气流底部,形成冷垫,使得暖湿气流在冷垫上滑行,加大降水强度。(2)低空急流指数的变化提前1 h预示了降水的出现及未来小时雨量的增减,其峰值出现预示着未来3 h的强降雨时段,即对强降雨时段的出现和雨强大小有一定的预示性,低空急流向低空的快速扩展对应着短时强降水的开始。可以用于强降水的短时临近预报。(3)Q矢量散度负值的强弱对于未来6 h的雨强大小有较好的指示意义。(4)淄博西河镇出现全省最大降雨量与其朝向东北的喇叭口地形和对流层低层东北风倒灌有关。(5)TBB场能较直观地反映强降水过程中降水的分布和强度。风廓线雷达超低空风场的变化对雨强大小和出现最大雨强的时段有着明显的指示意义。Using conventional meteorological data,NCEP FNL reanalysis data(1°×1°),wind profile radar data,black-body temperature(TBB),and hourly precipitation data of automatic meteorological stations,the multi-scale characteristics of the extreme rainstorm caused by Typhoon Lekima from 10 to 13 August 2019 in Shandong are analyzed and the results are as follows.(1)The typhoon heavy rainstorm is mainly caused by the interaction of synoptic systems in the middle and low latitudes as well as the direct influence of the typhoon inverted trough.Moreover,it is closely related to cold air.The intersection of the cold and warm air is conducive to the persistence of the stable precipitation in most parts of Shandong.The cold air intrudes into the bottom of the warm and humid air flow from the lower level to form a cold underlying layer.Besides,with the warm and humid air flow gliding on this cold underlying layer,the rainfall intensity further increases.(2)The change of the low-level jet index indicates the appearance of precipitation and the increase and decrease of the future hourly precipitation an hour in advance,and the peak value indicates the period of heavy rainfall in the next three hours.It is predictive for the appearance of the period of heavy rainfall and the precipitation intensity.The rapid expansion of the low-level jet to the lower level corresponds to the beginning of short-term heavy precipitation.It can be used for the short-term nowcasting of heavy precipitation.(3)The intensity of negative Q-vector divergence can indicate the rainfall intensity in the next 6 hours.(4)The maximum precipitation of Shandong appears in Xihe Town of Zibo,which is related to the flared terrain towards the northeast and the inflow of northeasterly winds in the lower troposphere.(5)The TBB field can more intuitively reflect the distribution and intensity of precipitation during the rainstorm process.The variation of the wind field in the ultra-low level from the wind profile radar has important indicative significance for the rainf

关 键 词：台风 低空急流 风场演变 冷空气 Q矢量散度 

分 类 号：P458.124[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]