基于改进蒙特卡洛混合抽样的含风光电力系统风险评估  

Risk assessment of a power system containing wind power and photovoltaic based on improved Monte Carlo mixed sampling

作　　者：马燕峰[1] 骆泽榕 赵书强[1] 王子建[1] 谢家荣 曾四鸣 MA Yanfeng;LUO Zerong;ZHAO Shuqiang;WANG Zijian;XIE Jiarong;ZENG Siming(Key Laboratory of Distributed Energy Storage and Microgrid of Hebei Province,North China Electric Power University,Baoding 071003,China;State Grid Hebei Electric Power Co.,Ltd.Research Institute,Shijiazhuang 050021,China)

机构地区：[1]河北省分布式储能与微网重点实验室(华北电力大学),河北保定071003 [2]国网河北省电力有限公司电力科学研究院,河北石家庄050021

出　　处：《电力系统保护与控制》2022年第9期75-83,共9页Power System Protection and Control

基　　金：国家重点研发项目资助(2017YFB0902200)。

摘　　要：强随机性和不确定性风电、光伏的接入使得电力系统运行变得更加复杂,全面高效评估含风光电力系统运行风险尤为必要。首先,针对传统蒙特卡洛方法在电力系统风险评估中计算效率较低的问题,结合全概率抽样、等分散抽样和自适应重要抽样的思想,提出一种基于改进蒙特卡洛混合抽样的风险评估方法。然后,计算系统的失负荷风险、电压越限风险、支路越限风险和稳态频率越限风险,并采用三层评估指标体系评估系统的运行风险。最后,以改进IEEE-RTS79系统和西北某省实际系统为例,验证了所提方法的有效性和准确性。并分析风光不同的接入位置、接入容量、接入比例下的系统风险情况,其结果可为电力系统运行及规划提供参考信息。The access of wind power and photovoltaic with strong randomness and uncertainty makes the operation of a power system more complicated,and in particular it is necessary to comprehensively and efficiently evaluate the operational risk of a power system containing wind power and photovoltaic.First,there is low computational efficiency of the traditional Monte Carlo method in power system risk assessment.Thus a version based on improved Monte Carlo mixed sampling is proposed,one which is combined with the ideas of full probability,equal dispersion and adaptive importance sampling to offer a risk assessment method.Secondly,the system's load loss,voltage over-limit,branch over-limit,and steady-state frequency over-limit risks are calculated,and a three-tier evaluation index system is used to evaluate the operational risk of the system.Finally,the improved IEEE-RTS79 system and the actual system in a northwestern province are used as examples to verify the effectiveness and accuracy of the proposed method.And the system risks of wind power and photovoltaic in different access locations,access capacities and access ratios are analyzed.The results can provide reference information for power system operation and planning.

关 键 词：风险评估 蒙特卡洛 混合抽样 风光 电力系统 

分 类 号：TM61[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]