伊犁河谷喀什河流域降水变化特征分析  

Analysis of Precipitation Variation Characteristics in Kashi River Basin in Ili Valley

作　　者：吴丽萍 杨余辉[1] 杨景燕 冯先成 曾康康 WU Li-ping;YANG Yu-hui;YANG Jing-yan(College of Geography Science and Tourism,Xinjiang Normal University,Urumqi,Xinjiang 830054)

机构地区：[1]新疆师范大学地理科学与旅游学院,新疆乌鲁木齐830054

出　　处：《安徽农业科学》2022年第10期190-194,共5页Journal of Anhui Agricultural Sciences

基　　金：新疆“天山青年计划”优秀科技人才培养项目(2018Q026);国家自然科学基金项目(41761004)。

摘　　要：利用喀什河流域1965—2018年逐日降水量实测资料,采用线性趋势分析、Mann-Kendall趋势检验、突变检验、Morlet小波分析方法对近54年新疆喀什河流域气候变化背景下的降水特征进行研究。结果表明,近54年喀什河流域年降水量总体呈24.14 mm/10 a的增加趋势,降水量在20世纪90年代增加最显著;喀什河流域降水量在冬季上升显著,夏季和秋季增加趋势较缓慢;喀什河流域降水量在冬季1月和2月增加明显。喀什河流域年降水量突变时间为1986、1988、1990年,春季降水量突变年份为1993、1994、1995、1997年,冬季降水量突变年份为1993年。喀什河流域年降水量主要存在15、6年2种周期性变化,其中15年为第一主周期,6年为第二主周期。由此可见,喀什河流域降水量呈显著增加趋势,冬季降水量对年际降水量增加贡献最大,1、2月份降水量对冬季降水量增加贡献最大。Using the measured daily precipitation data in the Kashi River Basin from 1965 to 2018, the linear trend analysis, Mann-Kendall trend test, mutation test and Morlet wavelet analysis methods were used to study the precipitation characteristics of the Kashi River Basin in Xinjiang under the background of climate change in the past 54 years.The results showed that in the past 54 years, the annual precipitation in the Kashi River Basin showed an overall increasing trend of 24.14 mm/10 a, and the precipitation increased most significantly in the 1990 s. The precipitation in the Kashi River Basin increased significantly in winter, and the increase trend was slower in summer and autumn.The precipitation in the Kashi River Basin increased significantly in January and February in winter.The sudden change of annual precipitation in the Kashi River Basin was 1986, 1988 and 1990, the sudden change of spring rainfall was 1993, 1994, 1995 and 1997, and the sudden change of winter rainfall was 1993.The annual precipitation in the Kashi River Basin mainly had two cyclical changes of 15 and 6 years, of which 15 years was the first main cycle and 6 years was the second main cycle.It can be seen that the precipitation in Kashi River Basin shows a significant increase trend, and the precipitation in winter has the largest contribution to the increase in inter-annual precipitation, and the precipitation in January and February has a greater contribution to the increase in winter precipitation.

关 键 词：伊犁河谷喀什河流域 降水量 变化特征 MANN-KENDALL检验 小波分析 

分 类 号：P426.6[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]