房价对地方政府债务风险的异质性影响研究  

The Heterogeneous Effects of Housing Price on Risk of Local Government Debts

作　　者：李又东[1] 潘宁 魏巍[3] 张璞[4] LI You-dong;PAN Ning;WEI Wei;ZHANG Pu(School of Management,Shaanxi University of Technology,Xi’an 723001,China;School of Graduate,Party School of the Central Committee of CPC,Beijing 100091,China;School of Economics,Lanzhou University,Lanzhou 730020,China;National Development Bank Hebei Branch,Shijiazhuang 050051,China)

机构地区：[1]陕西理工大学管理学院,陕西西安723001 [2]中共中央党校研究生院,北京100091 [3]兰州大学经济学院,甘肃兰州730020 [4]国家开发银行河北省分行,河北石家庄050051

出　　处：《数理统计与管理》2022年第3期526-540,共15页Journal of Applied Statistics and Management

基　　金：国家社会科学基金青年项目(18CJY061).

摘　　要：当前稳房价是防范和化解地方政府债务风险的重要举措。通过非线性框架,考察了区域土地财政依赖和经济发展实力差异下,房价影响地方政府債务风险的异质性机理。研究发现,房价降低地方政府债务风险的正故应随着土地财政依赖加深而逐渐弱化并产生负效应,而经济发展实力增强则强化了房价缓解地方政府债务风险的作用。此外,研究还发现,宽松的宏观经济政策潜在风险容易催生房价泡沐,导致地方债务风险居高不下,需重视结构调整。Stabilizing the prices of land,house and expectation is an important steps to advance the healthy development of the real estate market,and to prevent and reduce the risk of local government debt.Under the land finance,this paper investigates the influence of the dependence on land finance and economic power on the risk of government debt for 30 province,and then analyzes the evolutional relationship between the prices of land,house and the risk of local government debt.The result show that the prices of land and house can reduce the risk of government debt,but is will destroyed by the the increasing dependence of land finance.We also found that tolerant economic policies will bring new risks,such as the risk of real estate bubble and local government debt.

关 键 词：房价 地方债务风险 区域差异 土地财政依赖 

分 类 号：F832.51[经济管理—金融学] F822.0[理学—概率论与数理统计] F275[理学—数学] O212