2022—2023年中国宏观经济展望——兼论加大基建投资的宏观经济效应  

Forecast of China’s Macroeconomy for 2022-2023:The Macroeconomic Effect of Expanding Infratructral Investment

作　　者：“中国季度宏观经济模型(CQMM)”课题组 王燕武[1] 林致远[1] 龚敏[1] 吴华坤 Research Team on the China Quarterly Macroeconomic Model(Center for Macroeconomic Research,Xiamen University,Xiamen 361005,Fujian)

机构地区：[1]厦门大学宏观经济研究中心,福建厦门361005 [2]中国人民银行厦门中心支行

出　　处：《厦门大学学报（哲学社会科学版）》2022年第3期21-31,共11页Journal of Xiamen University(A Bimonthly for Studies in Arts & Social Sciences)

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目“经济特征变化下的中国减税降费政策组合研究”(20BJY231);教育部重点研究基地重大项目“中国季度宏观经济模型(CQMM)的再拓展”(17JJD790014);教育部重点研究基地重大项目“深化财税体制改革与促进中国经济平稳增长”(18JJD790007)。

摘　　要：当前,全球经济仍处于新冠肺炎疫情影响中,各国经济复苏将出现分化,加上2022年2月下旬以来俄乌战争爆发,全球经济面临新的挑战。应用中国季度宏观经济模型(CQMM),对2022—2023年共八个季度的中国宏观经济主要指标进行预测。结果表明:2022年中国GDP增速预计为5.49%,2023年为5.53%;2022年CPI预计上涨1.83%,2023年为1.38%;2022年按现价计算的固定资产投资(不含农户)增速预计为6.29%,2023年为5.33%;2022年社会消费品零售总额名义增速预计为8.50%,2023年提升至11.81%。进一步,利用CQMM模型,以2019—2021年为模拟时期样本,考察基建投资扩张的宏观经济效应,并且对比分析发债融资和税收融资两种路径的效应差异。结果显示,两种融资路径下的基建投资扩张均有助于稳增长,但前者的增长效应略大。为此,在当前条件下,我国可通过发展特别建设债券的方式来加大基建投资的力度,以实现基建投资和制造业投资的“双轮驱动”投资增长路径。同时,现阶段大规模减税降费政策的作用目标和实施措施应加以调整。Based on the China’s Quarterly Macroeconometric Model(CQMM),this paper forecasts the main macroeconomic indicators of China in the eight quarters from 2022 to 2023.The results show that China’s GDP growth is expected reach 5.49%in 2022 and 5.53%in 2023,while CPI is expected to rise 1.83%in 2022 and 1.38%in 2023.Fixed asset investment(excluding rural households)is projected to grow 6.29%in 2022 at current prices and 5.33%in 2023.Retail sales of consumer goods are expected to grow at a nominal rate of 8.50%in 2022 and 11.81%in 2023.Furthermore,using the CQMM model and taking 2019-2021 as the simulation period sample,the research team investigated the macroeconomic effects of infrastructure investment expansion,and compared and analyzed the effect differences of debt financing and tax financing.The results show that the expansion of infrastructure investment along the two financing paths contributes to steady growth,but the growth effect of the former is slightly larger.Therefore,under the current conditions,we can increase the intensity of infrastructure investment by developing special construction bonds,so as to realize the“two-wheel drive”investment growth path of infrastructure investment and manufacturing investment.At the same time,we should adjust the objectives and implementation measures of the current large-scale tax and fee reduction policy.

关 键 词：CQMM模型 经济预测 基建投资 

分 类 号：F105[经济管理—世界经济]