基于土地利用的青岛市碳排放变化特征与预测  

Carbon Emission Change Characteristic and Prediction in Qingdao City Based on Land Use

作　　者：张晓光[1] 张赢心 李士美 尹建国 ZHANG Xiaoguang;ZHANG Yingxin;LI Shimei;YIN Jianguo(Department of Resources and Environment,Qingdao Agricultural University,Qingdao 266109,China;Department of Landscape Architecture and Forestry,Qingdao Agricultural University,Qingdao 266109,China;The Fourth Geological Brigade of Shandong Provincial Bureau of Geology and Mineral Resources,Weifang 261021,China)

机构地区：[1]青岛农业大学资源与环境学院,山东青岛266109 [2]青岛农业大学园林与林学院,山东青岛266109 [3]山东省第四地质矿产勘查院,山东潍坊261021

出　　处：《地理空间信息》2022年第5期1-5,共5页Geospatial Information

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(41601211);土壤与农业可持续发展国家重点实验室开放基金资助项目(Y20160007);青岛农业大学高层次人才启动基金资助项目(1114344);青岛平度市自然资源局委托技术服务资助项目(6602419040)。

摘　　要：城市土地利用变化将引起碳排放的演变,开展快速发展城市区域的碳排放时空演变特征研究,对于固碳减排和缓解气候变化具有重要意义。以遥感提取的土地利用数据为基础,结合1980—2015年能源消费量数据,研究了青岛市近35年土地利用变化影响下的碳排放总量变化特征。35年间青岛市建设用地和水域面积增加明显,耕地、林地有所减少;净碳排放量总体呈上升趋势,由1980年的2.26×10^(6) t上升至2015年的1.96×10^(7) t;建设用地变化引起的碳排放是净碳排放量增加的主要因素,耕地变化引起的碳排放量所占比例很小;林地是主要的碳吸收源,林地、草地、水域总体碳吸收量基本保持稳定。对未来碳排放进行马尔科夫链预测发现,2030年碳排放量将达2000余万t。研究结果对快速城镇化地区的固碳减排政策具有积极的指导价值。Based on the land use data extracted from remote sensing and fuel consumption data,this paper analyzed the land use change and corresponding carbon emission characteristic of Qingdao City from 1980 to 2015.The results show that construction land and water area increased significantly,and cultivated land and forest land decreased slightly.The total net carbon emission increased from 2.26×10^(6) t in 1980 to 1.96×10^(7) t in 2015.The increase of carbon emission was mainly attributed to the expansion of construction land.Cultivated land accounted for little carbon emission and presented a declining tendency.Forestland was the main carbon sink.In addition,the total carbon stock of forestland,grassland and water area was almost consistent.By means of Markov model,it was predicted that the carbon emission would reach 20 million tons in 2030.

关 键 词：碳排放 土地利用变化 马尔科夫预测模型 青岛市 

分 类 号：P237[天文地球—摄影测量与遥感]