基于层次分析法的废弃煤矿转型研究  

Transformation of Abandoned Coal Mines Based on Analytic Hierarchy Process

作　　者：李照源 朱菡妤 尚煜[1] 刘坪雷 冯泽霖 王俊丽 石清诺 

机构地区：[1]中国矿业大学(北京),北京100083

出　　处：《中国能源》2022年第4期44-54,63,共12页Energy of China

基　　金：中国矿业大学(北京)大学生创新训练项目资助(编号:202105024)。

摘　　要：随着供给侧结构性改革的提出以及煤炭“去产能”政策的实施,废弃煤矿的数量不断增加。“十四五”规划下的碳达峰碳中和的“双碳”目标正在推动能源革命,加快淘汰落后产能、化解过剩产能,成为当务之急。为解决“去产能”过程中出现的大量废弃煤矿的转型问题,基于层次分析法构建废弃煤矿转型评价模型,通过德尔菲法合理确定评价指标的权重和评分,再经过模型评分得出废弃煤矿的转型方向,借助已经成功转型的案例验证模型评价选择结果的正确性。在调研攀枝花宝鼎矿区、徐州潘安采煤塌陷片区、神木大柳塔矿区等成功转型案例的基础上,得到了三层31个指标的废弃煤矿转型评价指标体系,涵盖废弃煤矿主流的转型方向,构建基于此指标体系和层次分析法的转型评价模型。为废弃煤矿的转型重生工作提供了理论依据,以解决煤炭行业转型问题,提高废弃煤矿的经济效益,促进产业结构优化升级。With the introduction of supply-side structural reforms and the implementation of policies to reduce coal overcapacity,the number of abandoned coal mines has continued to increase.The carbon peaking and neutrality targets under the 14th Five-Year Plan is the driving force of the energy revolution.Therefore,accelerating the elimination of outdated production capacity and resolving excess capacity has become a top priority.In order to solve the transformation problem of a large number of abandoned coal mines in the process of reducing overcapacity,an evaluation model for the transformation of abandoned coal mines was constructed based on the AHP.Evaluate the correctness of the selection results with the help of the cases that has been successfully transformed.On the basis of investigating the successful transformation cases of Baoding mining area in Panzhihua,Pan'an coal mining subsidence area in Xuzhou,Daliuta mining area in Shenmu and other successful transformation cases,a three-layer and 31-indicator transformation evaluation index system for abandoned coal mines was obtained,covering the mainstream transformation direction of abandoned coal mines.As a result,we construct a transformation evaluation model based on this index system and AHP.,which provides a theoretical basis for the transformation and rebirth of abandoned coal mines,solves the problem of coal industry transformation,improves the economic benefits of abandoned coal mines,and promotes the optimization and upgrading of industrial structure.

关 键 词：废弃煤矿 转型机制 产业转型 碳中和 层次分析法 德尔菲法 

分 类 号：F426[经济管理—产业经济]