缅甸:2021年回顾与2022年展望  

Myanmar: Review of 2021 and Prospects of 2022

作　　者：祝湘辉 王文佳 孟泽洋 ZHU Xianghui;WANG Wenjia;MENG Zeyang

机构地区：[1]云南大学“一带一路”研究院、缅甸研究院 [2]云南大学国际关系研究院

出　　处：《东南亚纵横》2022年第1期81-91,共11页Crossroads：Southeast Asian Studies

摘　　要：2021年,缅甸军队以大选存在舞弊现象为由接管政权,全国民主联盟支持者发起了“Z世代”和“公民不服从运动”的抗议,呼吁国际社会介入,并组建了“民族团结政府”和“人民防卫军”。军方与反军方力量矛盾不断升级,流血冲突不断。缅甸军队改组政府,制定经济发展计划,大力应对COVID-19疫情,外交上以周边地区国家为重心。以美国为代表的西方势力对缅甸军方重启制裁,中国和东盟呼吁双方协商和平解决缅甸问题。展望2022年,尽管缅甸军方与反军方力量斗争仍然持续,但军方作为实力最强大的集团,将牢牢掌控局势。政治精英之间互不妥协和个体利益至上是缅甸长治久安的最大障碍。In 2021, Myanmar’s army took over power on the ground of election fraud. As a result, supporters of the National League for Democracy(NLD) launched the protests of "Gen Z" and the "Civil Disobedience Movement"(CDM),calling on the intervention from the international community, and establishing the "Government of National Unity"(NUG)and the "People’s Defense Army"(PDA). The contradiction between the military and the anti-military forces was escalating, and bloody conflicts continued. Myanmar’s military reorganized the government, formulated economic development plans, vigorously responded to the COVID-19 epidemic, and focused on neighboring countries in diplomacy. Western forces represented by the United States have restarted sanctions against the Myanmar military.China and ASEAN called on both sides to negotiate a peaceful solution to the Myanmar issue. In 2022, the struggle between Myanmar’s military and anti-military forces will still continue, but the military, as the most powerful group, will keep a firm grip on the situation. Intransigence among political elites and the supremacy of individual interests are the biggest obstacles to the long-term stability of Myanmar.

关 键 词：缅甸军方 接管政权 昂山素季 敏昂莱 

分 类 号：D733.7[政治法律—政治学]