基于船舶操纵模拟的桥区水域通航风险评价研究  

Navigation risk assessment in bridge areas based on the simulation of ship maneuvering

作　　者：孔宪卫[1,2] 张庆河 李晓松[1] 王晨阳 KONG Xianwei;ZHANG Qinghe;LI Xiaosong;WANG Chenyang(National Engineering Laboratory for Port Hydraulic Construction Technology, Tianjin Research Institute for Water Transport Engineering, MOT, Tianjin 300456, China;School of Civil Engineering, Tianjin University, Tianjin 300072, China)

机构地区：[1]交通运输部天津水运工程科学研究所,港口水工建筑技术国家工程实验室,天津300456 [2]天津大学建筑工程学院,天津300072

出　　处：《哈尔滨工程大学学报》2022年第5期667-672,共6页Journal of Harbin Engineering University

基　　金：国家重点研发计划(2018YFB1600400);中央级公益性科研院所基本科研业务费专项资金项目(TKS 20210310).

摘　　要：针对桥区水域通航风险问题,本文建立了船舶操纵数学模型,通过船舶仿真模拟确定了考虑人为操纵因素影响的船撞桥概率。在此基础上,利用模糊数学理论,采用专家咨询及调研分析等方法,建立了包括人为因素影响在内的2层次桥区水域通航风险评价模型,并应用南京长江大桥的实测资料对模型的合理性进行了验证。结果表明:桥梁选址因素在风险评价模型中权重最大,其次是人为因素,南京长江大桥桥区水域的总体通航风险处于“一般危险”等级。To solve the navigation safety problems in bridge areas,a mathematical ship maneuvering model is established in this work.The ship-bridge collision probability is determined through simulation experiments,with the influence of the human factor considered.On this basis,a two-level navigation risk assessment model in bridge areas considering the human factor is established by adopting the theory of fuzzy mathematics and expert consultation,investigation,and analysis methods.The rationality of the proposed model is verified using measured data from the Nanjing Yangtze River Bridge area.The results show that the bridge location is the most important factor in the model,followed by the human factor.The overall navigation risk level of the Nanjing Yangtze River Bridge area is considered“general.”

关 键 词：通航安全 桥区水域 人为因素 船撞桥概率 模糊综合评价 

分 类 号：U69[交通运输工程—港口、海岸及近海工程] X924[交通运输工程—船舶与海洋工程]