A U.S.‒China coal power transition and the global 1.5℃ pathway  

作　　者：Ryna Yiyun CUI Nathan HULTMAN Di-Yang CUI Haewon MCJEON Leon CLARKE Jia-Hai YUAN Wen-Jia CAI 

机构地区：[1]Center for Global Sustainability,School of Public Policy,University of Maryland,College Park,MD,20742,USA [2]Joint Global Change Research Institute,Pacific Northwest National Laboratory,College Park,MD,20740,USA [3]School of Economics and Management,North China Electric Power University,Beijing,102206,China [4]Department of Earth System Science,Tsinghua University,Beijing,100084,China

出　　处：《Advances in Climate Change Research》2022年第2期179-186,共8页气候变化研究进展（英文版）

基　　金：RC,NH,DC,LC,HM acknowledge funding support from Bloomberg Philanthropies,USA and Climate Works Foundation,USA;JH Yuan acknowledges the funding of National Natural Science Foundation of China(72173043);WJ Cai acknowledges the funding of National Natural Science Foundation of China(71773061);the GEIGC Science and Technology Project in the framework of the“Research on Comprehensive Path Evaluation Methods and Practical Models for the Synergetic Development of Global Energy,Atmospheric Environment and Human Health”(grant No.20210302007).

摘　　要：As the world seeks to increase ambition rapidly to limit global warming to 1.5℃,joint leadership from the world's largest greenhouse gas(GHG)emitters-the United States(U.S.)and China-will be critical to deliver significant emissions reductions from their own countries as well as to catalyze increased international action.After a period of uncertainty in international climate policy,these countries now both have current leadership that supports ambitious climate action.In this context,a feasible,high-impact,and potentially globally catalytic agreement by the U.S.and China to transition away from coal to clean energy would be a major contribution toward this global effort.We undertake a plant-by-plant assessment in the power sector to identify practical coal retirement pathways for each country that are in line with national priorities and the global 1.5℃ target.Our plant-by-plant analysis shows that the 1.5℃-compatible pathways may result in an average retirement age of 47 years for the U.S.coal plants and 22 years for Chinese coal plants,raising important questions of how to compare broader economic,employment,and social impacts.We also demonstrate that such pathways would also lead to significant emissions reductions,lowering overall global energy-related CO_(2) emissions by about 9%in 2030 relative to 2020.A catalytic effect from the possibility of other countries taking compatible actions is estimated to reduce global emissions by 5.1 Gt CO_(2) in 2030 and by 10.1 Gt CO_(2) in 2045.

关 键 词：U.S.‒China Coal power transition Climate mitigation Paris agreement Integrated assessment modeling 

分 类 号：F426[经济管理—产业经济]