收入水平、城镇化与汽车市场需求--基于中国省级面板数据的实证(2000-2019)  

Income level,Urbanization and Automobile Market Demand--An Empirical Study Based on Provincial Panel Data of China(2000-2019)

作　　者：江永洪[1,2] JIANG Yong-hong(Shaanxi Institute of International Trade&Commerce,School of International Economy,Xi'an 712021,China;School of Economics and Finance,Xi'an Jiaotong University,Xi'an 710061,China)

机构地区：[1]陕西国际商贸学院国际经济学院,西安712021 [2]西安交通大学经济与金融学院,西安710061

出　　处：《陕西行政学院学报》2022年第2期104-109,共6页Journal of Shaanxi Academy of Governance

基　　金：陕西省社会科学基金一般项目“供给侧改革背景下陕西汽车产业转型升级研究”(2017D023);陕西省创新能力支撑计划软科学一般项目“技术创新对陕西产业结构升级的空间效应研究”(2020KRM108);西安市社科基金重点项目“西安建设国际消费中心城市的潜力测度、效应评价与提升策略”(22JX04);陕西国际商贸学院步长西咸经济研究院专项“健康产业发展水平测度及区域差异研究”(SMZX202115)。

摘　　要：收入水平提升和城市化推进都将从需求侧影响汽车产业的发展。基于中国31个省级单位2000-2019年面板数据,通过中介效应模型、最小二乘工具变量法,研究收入水平通过城镇化影响汽车市场需求的作用机理和异质性省际差异。本研究为政府通过收入调解和实施城镇化推动汽车产业差异化发展提供了理论支撑和和经验证据。研究表明:收入水平、城镇化与汽车市场需求均存在正相关关系;收入水平对城镇化具有显著的正向影响;收入水平通过城镇化影响汽车市场需求存在部分中介效应;收入水平、城镇化促进汽车市场需求各省份存在异质性,而省际地貌、人口出生率、高铁开通城市数量对汽车市场需求也存在省际差异。Both the increase of income level and the advancement of urbanization will affect the development of the automobile industry from the demand side.Strengthening the auto industry will inevitably accelerate the process of China's industrialization.Based on the panel data of 31 provincial-level units in China from 2000 to 2019,through the mediation effect model and the least squares instrumental variable method,this paper studies the mechanism of income level affecting automobile market demand through urbanization and the heterogeneity of inter-provincial differences.The research shows that:there is a positive correlation between income level,urbanization and automobile market demand;income level has a significant positive impact on urbanization;income level affects automobile market demand through urbanization,and there is a partial mediation effect;income level and urbanization promotes the auto market demand is heterogeneous among provinces,and there are also inter-provincial differences in the inter-provincial geomorphology,population birth rate,and the number of cities with high-speed rail openings.This study provides theoretical support and empirical evidence for the government to promote the differentiated development of the automobile industry through income mediation and implementation of urbanization.

关 键 词：收入水平 城镇化 汽车市场 中介效应 异质性 

分 类 号：F234[经济管理—会计学]