事故致因本质剖析及其理论建模研究  

Analysis of the Accident-Causing Nature and Its Theoretical Modeling Study

作　　者：唐礼忠[1] 成文媛 TANG Lizhong;CHENG Wenyuan(School of Resource and Safety Engineering,Central South University,Changsha 410083)

机构地区：[1]中南大学资源与安全工程学院,长沙410083

出　　处：《科技促进发展》2021年第12期2177-2186,共10页Science & Technology for Development

摘　　要：为明晰事故致因本质、促进安全科学基础理论的发展,基于已有事故致因体系和SOC理论,采用“正向构建”范式,构建以能量和信息为主线的C-EI-C模型。从微、中、宏系统自组织演化和它系统被组织演化4个阶段介绍了系统演化过程,并延伸了模型内涵,阐述其功能与价值。研究表明:将能量与信息结合是安全科学研究的一种新思路,新模型明确了事故致因本质,揭示了完整的事故致因机理,为事故预测提供了科学依据,从而真正做到事故的超前预防。To clarify the nature of the cause of accidents and promote the development of the basic theory of safety science,based on the existing accident-causing system and the Self-organized criticality(SOC)theory,the C-EI-C model with the energy transfer and information propagation as the main line was constructed by using the"forward construction"paradigm.The system evolution process was introduced from four stages of micro system self-organization evolution,middle system self-organization evolution,macro system self-organization evolution,and other system organized evolution,then the connotation of the new model was extended and its function and value were expounded.The research shows that the combination of energy and information is a new idea for safety science research.The new model fully clarifies the nature of the cause of accidents,reveals the complete cause of accidents and provides a scientific basis for accident prediction,so that the advance prevention of accidents can be truly achieved.

关 键 词：安全信息 安全能量 事故致因模型 自组织临界性(SOC)理论 

分 类 号：X91[环境科学与工程—安全科学]