“全面二孩”政策对家庭消费的影响——基于PSM-DID的实证研究  

The Impact of the “Comprehensive Two-Child”Policy on Household Consumption:An Empirical Research Based on PSM-DID

作　　者：苍玉权[1] 周家静 CANG Yuquan;ZHOU Jiajing(School of Statistics and Mathematics,Nanjing Audit University,Nanjing 211815,China)

机构地区：[1]南京审计大学统计与数据科学学院,江苏南京211815

出　　处：《南京审计大学学报》2022年第3期93-101,共9页Journal of Nanjing Audit University

基　　金：国家重点研发(973计划)项目(2019YFB1404602)。

摘　　要：经济发展水平的提高和人口生育政策的调整,会通过人口结构的改变,对居民消费意愿和消费结构产生影响。基于经典的消费需求理论,利用2014年和2018年中国家庭追踪调查数据(CFPS),通过双重差分法(DID)和倾向得分匹配-双重差分法(PSM-DID)检验“全面二孩”政策实施前后,家庭消费倾向及其消费结构是否发生显著改变。研究发现:一方面,“全面二孩”政策并未显著提升或抑制家庭消费倾向。另一方面,政策的调整促进了家庭消费结构升级,尤其对城镇家庭消费升级的促进作用更加明显,其中生存型消费占比下降,发展型消费占比上升。The improvement of the level of economic development and the adjustment of the population birth policy will affect the residents’ willingness to consume and the consumption structure through the change of the population structure. Based on the classic theory of consumer demand, this article uses the data from the China Family Panel Studies(CFPS) in 2014 and 2018 to test the implementation of the “comprehensive two-child” policy through the double difference method(DID) and the propensity score matching-double difference method(PSM-DID) to see whether the household consumption tendency and its consumption structure have changed significantly before and after the policy. The study finds that, on the one hand, the “comprehensive two-child” policy did not significantly increase or inhibit household consumption propensity. On the other hand, policy adjustments have promoted the upgrading of household consumption structure, especially in promoting the upgrading of urban household consumption. Among them, the proportion of subsistence consumption has declined while the proportion of development consumption has increased.

关 键 词：全面二孩 消费倾向 消费结构 DID估计 PSM-DID估计 

分 类 号：F924.2[经济管理]