基于密切接触者队列的新型冠状病毒肺炎病程和相关流行病学参数研究  

Course of disease and related epidemiological parameters of COVID-19:a prospective study based on contact tracing cohort

作　　者：周燕 梁文佳[3] 陈子慧[2] 刘涛[2] 宋铁[4] 陈少威 王萍[2] 李佳玲[3] 蓝韵华 程明基 黄锦叙[6] 牛计伟 肖建鹏[2] 胡建雄 林立丰[4] 黄琼[7] 邓爱萍[8] 谭小华[8] 康敏[8] 陈桂敏 董墨染 钟豪杰[9] 马文军[1,2] Zhou Yan;Liang Wenjia;Chen Zihui;Liu Tao;Song Tie;Chen Shaowei;Wang Ping;Li Jialing;Lan Yunhua;Cheng Mingji;Huang Jinxu;Niu Jiwei;Xiao Jianpeng;Hu Jianxiong;Lin Lifeng;Huang Qiong;Deng Aiping;Tan Xiaohua;Kang Min;Chen Guimin;Dong Moran;Zhong Haojie;Ma Wenjun(School of Public Health,Southern Medical University,Guangzhou 510515,China;Guangdong Provincial Institute of Public Health,Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Guangzhou 511430,China;Institute of Immunization Programme,Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Guangzhou 511430,China;Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Guangzhou 511430,China;institute of Disinfection and Vector Control,Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Guangzhou 511430,China;Institute of Environment and School Health,Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Guangzhou 511430,China;Institute of Nutrition and Food Safety,Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Guangzhou 511430,China;Institute of Infectious Disease Control and Prevention,Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Guangzhou 511430,China;Public Health Emergency Preparedness and Response Division,Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Guangzhou 511430,China)

机构地区：[1]南方医科大学公共卫生学院,广州510515 [2]广东省疾病预防控制中心广东省公共卫生研究院,广州511430 [3]广东省疾病预防控制中心免疫所,广州511430 [4]广东省疾病预防控制中心,广州511430 [5]广东省疾病预防控制中心消毒与病媒生物控制所,广州511430 [6]广东省疾病预防控制中心环境与学校卫生所,广州511430 [7]广东省疾病预防控制中心营养与食品安全所,广州511430 [8]广东省疾病预防控制中心传染病预防控制所,广州511430 [9]广东省疾病预防控制中心公共卫生应急部,广州511430

出　　处：《中华预防医学杂志》2022年第4期474-478,共5页Chinese Journal of Preventive Medicine

基　　金：广东省科技计划项目(2018B020207006);广东省防控新型冠状病毒肺炎科技攻关专项(2020111107001);广东省重点领域研发计划资助(2019B111103001);中国博士后科学基金新冠肺炎疫情防控专项(2020T130020ZX);广州市科技计划项目(202102021285)。

摘　　要：目的分析新型冠状病毒肺炎(COVID-19)病程和相关流行病学参数。方法利用对数正态、威布尔、伽马分布模型对广东省2020年1月1日至3月15日密切接触者中感染者的病程频率分布进行拟合,并对感染者基本特征和病程及相关流行病学参数进行描述性分析。结果11580名密切接触者中515人被感染,续发率为4.4%,其中449例为确诊病例,66例为无症状感染者。确诊病例潜隐期、潜伏期、症状前传染期和无症状感染者传染期以对数正态分布拟合最优,确诊病例传染期和临床症状期以伽马分布拟合最优,而无症状感染者潜隐期以威布尔分布拟合最优。确诊病例的潜隐期、潜伏期、症状前传染期、传染期和临床症状期(95%CI)分别为4.50(3.86~5.13)、5.12(4.63~5.62)、0.87(0.67~1.07)、11.89(9.81~13.98)和22.00(21.24~22.77)d,无症状感染者的潜隐期、传染期(95%CI)分别为8.88(6.89~10.86)和6.18(1.89~10.47)d。结论所估计COVID-19病程和相关流行病学参数与既有数据相近。Objective To analyze the course of disease and epidemiological parameters of COVID-19 and provide evidence for making prevention and control strategies.Methods To display the distribution of course of disease of the infectors who had close contacts with COVID-19 cases from January 1 to March 15,2020 in Guangdong Provincial,the models of Lognormal,Weibull and gamma distribution were applied.A descriptive analysis was conducted on the basic characteristics and epidemiological parameters of course of disease.Results In total,515 of 11580 close contacts were infected,with an attack rate about 4.4%,including 449 confirmed cases and 66 asymptomatic cases.Lognormal distribution was fitting best for latent period,incubation period,pre-symptomatic infection period of confirmed cases and infection period of asymptomatic cases;Gamma distribution was fitting best for infectious period and clinical symptom period of confirmed cases;Weibull distribution was fitting best for latent period of asymptomatic cases.The latent period,incubation period,pre-symptomatic infection period,infectious period and clinical symptoms period of confirmed cases were 4.50(95%CI:3.86-5.13)days,5.12(95%CI:4.63-5.62)days,0.87(95%CI:0.67-1.07)days,11.89(95%CI:9.81-13.98)days and 22.00(95%CI:21.24-22.77)days,respectively.The latent period and infectious period of asymptomatic cases were 8.88(95%CI:6.89-10.86)days and 6.18(95%CI:1.89-10.47)days,respectively.Conclusion The estimated course of COVID-19 and related epidemiological parameters are similar to the existing data.

关 键 词：肺炎 病毒性 接触者追踪 流行病学计量 新型冠状病毒肺炎 

分 类 号：R563.1[医药卫生—呼吸系统] R181.3[医药卫生—内科学]