中国数字经济规模预测模型构建  

Construction of Prediction Model for China’s Digital Economy Scale

作　　者：李栋 王珊 任晓菲 Li Dong;Wang Shan;Ren Xiaofei(School of Economics and Management,Xi’an University of Posts and Telecommunications,Xi'an 710071,China)

机构地区：[1]西安邮电大学经济与管理学院,西安710071

出　　处：《统计与决策》2022年第10期5-9,共5页Statistics & Decision

基　　金：陕西省社会科学基金资助项目(2019D051);陕西省教育厅科研计划资助项目(20JT063)。

摘　　要：数字经济规模是衡量数字经济发展状况的量化指标,通过准确预测可以帮助政府科学制定数字经济相关政策,正确规划数字经济发展战略。文章综合运用了Pearson相关分析、主成分分析、多元线性回归以及平衡优化器等多种方法,构建了中国数字经济规模预测模型,为了检验模型的准确性,实验对比了所提模型与自回归滑动平均模型、多元线性回归模型等6个常用模型的预测效果,结果显示,本文提出的模型在RMSE、R2以及MAPE上均表现最好。The scale of digital economy is a quantitative indicator to measure the development of digital economy.Accurate prediction can help the government scientifically formulate digital economy-related policies and correctly plan the development strategy of digital economy.This paper combines Pearson correlation analysis,principal component analysis,multiple linear regression,and equilibrium optimizer to construction a prediction model for the scale of China’s digital economy,In order to test the accuracy of the model,the paper compares the prediction effects of the proposed model with auto-regressive moving average model,multiple linear regression model and other 4 commonly used models through experiments.The results show that the proposed model performs best on RMSE,R2and MAPE.

关 键 词：数字经济规模预测模型 Pearson相关分析 主成分分析 多元线性回归模型 平衡优化器 

分 类 号：F201[经济管理—国民经济]