四川省降雨灾情时空分布及其与雨量相关特征分析  

Spatial and Temporal Distribution of Rainfall Disasters and Analysis of Its Rainfall-Related Characteristics in Sichuan Province

作　　者：高洁[1,2] 王明田 郭善云[1,2] 汪丽 叶帮苹[1,2] GAO Jie;WANG Mingtian;GUO Shanyun;WANG Li;YE Bangping(Sichuan Provincial Meteorological Observatory,Chengdu 610072;Heavy Rain and Drought-Flood Disasters in Plateau and Basin Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province,Chengdu 610072;Water-Saving Agriculture in Southern Hill Area Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province,Chengdu 610066)

机构地区：[1]四川省气象台,成都610072 [2]高原与盆地暴雨旱涝灾害四川省重点实验室,成都610072 [3]南方丘区节水农业研究四川省重点实验室,成都610066

出　　处：《气象科技》2022年第2期224-233,共10页Meteorological Science and Technology

基　　金：四川省气象局科学技术研究开发课题基金项目(川气课题2015-开发-15);中国气象局软科学研究项目(2020ZZXM16)资助。

摘　　要：利用四川省2002—2020年降雨灾情数据和156个国家气象观测站及5727个区域气象观测站逐日、逐小时降雨资料,分析四川省降雨灾情时空分布及其与雨量特征的联系。结果表明:四川省近年来降雨灾情数量增长明显,盆地西部、南部灾情数量最多,密度最大,凉山州和盆地东北部死亡人数最多。灾害主要发生在6—9月,灾情分布有从盆地东北部、南部向西部发展,最后到东北部的趋势。盆地在有大暴雨出现时灾害发生可能性最大,致灾频率50%以上,暴雨致灾频率20%~40%;攀西地区暴雨出现时致灾频率20%~30%;川西高原暴雨天气过程较少,大雨出现时致灾频率最大,为10%~30%。最大小时雨量盆地区在10 mm以下的灾害主要发生在盆南和盆东北,盆西在各个雨量等级范围内占比都较大,攀西地区灾害主要集中在10~40 mm,川西高原为20 mm以下。最大日降雨量小于50 mm的灾害主要分布在盆南,超过300 mm的主要发生在盆西北,50~100 mm以盆南和盆西南为主,攀西地区50~100 mm占比最大,川西高原为25~50 mm。Based on the rainfall disaster data of Sichuan Province from 2002 to 2020, the daily and hourly rainfall data from 156 national meteorological stations and 5727 regional meteorological stations, the spatial and temporal distribution of rainfall disasters and its relationship with rainfall characteristics in Sichuan Province are analyzed. The results show that the number of rainfall disasters in Sichuan Province has increased obviously in recent years. The number and density of rainfall disasters are the largest in the west and south of the Basin, and the number of deaths is the largest in Liangshan Prefecture and the northeast of the Basin. The disasters mainly occur from June to September and develop from the northeast, south to the west, and finally to the northeast of the Basin. The Basin has the highest possibility of a disaster occurring with torrential rains. The frequency of disaster occurrence is more than 50%, the frequency of disaster caused by heavy rain is 20%-40%, caused by heavy rain is 20%-30% in Panxi Region, caused by heavy rain is less in the western Sichuan Plateau, and caused by heavy rain is the highest, which is 10%-30%. The disasters with maximum hourly rainfall less than 10 mm in the basin area mainly occur in the south and northeast of the Basin. The disasters in the west of the Basin account for a larger proportion in each rainfall grade range. The disasters in the Panxi Region are mainly concentrated in 10-40 mm, and those in the western Sichuan Plateau are less than 20 mm. Disasters with maximum daily rainfall of less than 50 mm are mainly distributed in the south of the Basin, and those with maximum daily rainfall of more than 300 mm are mainly in the northwest of the Basin. Those with maximum daily rainfall of 50-100 mm are mainly in the south and southwest of the Basin. The proportion of 50-100 mm in the Panxi Region is the largest, and that in the western Sichuan Plateau is 25-50 mm.

关 键 词：降雨灾情 时空分布 雨量特征 四川 

分 类 号：P429[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]