基于MaxEnt生态位模型预测木灵藓科三属植物在新疆的潜在分布区  

Potential distribution prediction of three genus of Orthotrichaceae in Xinjiang based on MaxEnt niche model

作　　者：艾拉努尔·卡哈尔 王鹏军 逯永满 袁祯燕 买买提明·苏来曼 ALANUR Kahar;WANG Pengjun;LU Yongman;YUAN Zhenyan;MAMTIMIN Sulayman(Xinjiang Key Laboratory of Biological Resources and Genetic Engineering,College of Life Science and Technology, Xinjiang University, Urumqi 830046, China)

机构地区：[1]新疆大学生命科学与技术学院新疆生物资源基因工程重点实验室,乌鲁木齐830046

出　　处：《华中师范大学学报（自然科学版）》2022年第3期487-496,540,共11页Journal of Central China Normal University：Natural Sciences

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(32060050,31660052).

摘　　要：木灵藓科植物是干旱、半干旱环境中常见的藓类植物,对温度和降水极为敏感.木灵藓科在中国的物种丰富度由东向西增加,在新疆的丰富度较高.木灵藓属(Orthotrichum)、显孔藓属(Lewinskya)、多胞藓属(Nyholmiella)是三个在新疆分布较为广泛的属.预测当前以及未来气候情景下这三个属在新疆的潜在分布范围,将为木灵藓科区系和多样性研究提供一定的参考依据,也能预判未来气候变化对新疆地区木灵藓属的分布影响.该文根据木灵藓属、显孔藓属、多胞藓属在新疆的125个地理采集样点和19个气候因子,运用MaxEnt模型预测了它们适生区,并分析这些气候因素对其分布范围的影响.结果显示:1)AUC值高达0.945,说明该模型能够很好地预测了三个属的适生区范围.Jackknife检验表明,影响三个属分布的主要气候因子为最湿季平均气温以及最干季降雨量,贡献率分别为24.5%、23.9%.2)该三属主要分布在阿勒泰、塔城、中部天山山脉、哈密、喀什和克州等地区,在和田和巴州也有一定的分布.在21世纪50年代的气候情景下,这些属在阿尔泰和塔城的分布范围将扩大,而在喀什和巴州的则缩小.总体而言,在21世纪70年代的气候情景下,这三个属在新疆的潜在分布区面积比现在的有所缩小.该文以气候因子预测了木灵藓科在新疆当前和未来的潜在分布范围,今后的工作中,将考虑影响苔藓植物生长的地形、植被的类型等,以进一步提高预测结果的准确性.As common mosses in arid and semi-arid environments,Orthotrichaceae are extremely sensitive to temperature and precipitation.The species richness of Orthotrichaceae increases from east to west in China,and is relatively high in Xinjiang.Orthotrichum,Lewinskya and Nyholmiella are widely distributed in Xinjiang.In order to make clear the change on floristic,diversity and distribution of the three genus,it is necessary to predict the potential distribution in Xinjiang by current and future climate scenarios.MaxEnt model was used to predict the distribution areas and analyze the climatic factors based on 125 geography-collected sites and 19 climatic factors in Xinjiang.The results are shown as follows.1)The AUC value was as high as 0.945,indicating that the model is able to predict the suitable area range of the three genus well.Jackknife test suggested that the main climatic factors were the average temperature in the wettest season and the rainfall in the driest season with contribution rates of 24.5%and 23.9%,respectively.2)These three genera are mainly distributed in Altay,Tacheng,central Tianshan Mountains,Hami,Kashgar,Kezhou,Hotan and Bazhou.Under the climate scenario in the 2050s,the distribution of these genera in Altay and Tacheng will expand,while those in Kashgar and Bazhou will shrink.Overall,in 2070s the potential distribution area of the three genera in Xinjiang will be smaller than present.In this paper,the current and future potential distribution of Bryophytes in Xinjiang is predicted only based on climate factors.The topography and vegetation types which affect bryophytes growth will be considered to improve the accuracy of the prediction results in the future work.

关 键 词：木灵藓属 显孔藓属 多胞藓属 新疆 MAXENT 潜在分布区 

分 类 号：Q145.2[生物学—生态学]