农业涝渍灾害评估中不同气象产量分离方法的比较研究  

Comparative study of different meteorological yield separation methods in wa-terlogging disaster assessment

作　　者：蒙华月 王兆林 姚佩 钱龙 陈诚 罗云英 鞠学良 MENG Huayue;WANG Zhaolin;YAO Pei;QIAN Long;CHEN Cheng;LUO Yunying;JU Xueliang(School of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering,Wuhan University,Wuhan 430072,China;School of Civil Engineering,Sun Yat-Sen University,Guangzhou 510275,China;Shanghai Academy of Environmental Sciences,Shanghai 200233,China;Guangzhou Hydraulic Research Institute(Technical Advisory Service Center for Secondary Water Supply of Guangzhou),Guangzhou 510220,China;State Grid Shaanxi Electric Power Research Institute,Xi’an 710100,China)

机构地区：[1]武汉大学水利水电学院,武汉430072 [2]中山大学土木工程学院,广州510275 [3]上海市环境科学研究院,上海200233 [4]广州市水务科学研究所(挂广州市二次供水技术咨询服务中心牌子),广州510220 [5]国网陕西省电力有限公司电力科学研究院,西安710100

出　　处：《中国生态农业学报（中英文）》2022年第6期976-989,共14页Chinese Journal of Eco-Agriculture

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(51909286);中央高校基本科研业务费(2021qntd15)资助。

摘　　要：农业旱涝灾害评估中常采用不同方法计算作物气象产量,但其中鲜见关于不同方法的比较研究。长江中下游棉区因涝减产现象严重,因此本文以该地区6省为研究区,利用标准化降水蒸散指数量化棉花生长期的涝渍强度,选用7种常见气象产量分离方法(线性拟合、二次多项式拟合、三次多项式拟合、HP滤波法、3年滑动平均法、5年滑动平均法及五点二次平滑法)计算棉花气象产量,并通过涝渍强度与气象产量的相关分析结果评估不同方法的表现。此外,结合历史受涝面积对不同方法的涝渍灾害刻画能力进行对比。结果表明:不同方法计算的棉花气象产量具有相似的长期趋势,但在短期波动上存在较大差异。就气象产量和涝渍程度的相关性而言,HP滤波法、线性拟合和二次多项式效果更好;而就气象产量结果与历史受涝面积的相符程度而言,HP滤波最优,其次是二次多项式和三次多项式。此外,基于7种方法的相关分析结果均判定湖北省和安徽省是棉花因涝减产最严重的省份,但对于其余省份的判定结果会存在差异。湖北省和安徽省虽然因涝减产严重,但两省棉花涝渍的发生倾向低于其余省份。因此,在农业涝渍评估工作中推荐使用HP滤波法,而长江中下游棉区的涝渍防治工作应重点关注湖北省和安徽省。Various meteorological yield separation methods have been applied in research on agricultural drought and flood disaster assessment.However,a specific comparison of the performance of these methods is rarely performed.The middle-and-lower reach of Yangtze River is an important cotton-production belt in China,but the region is frequently flooded,resulting in severe cotton yield losses.Hence,the objective of the present work was to assess the impacts of waterlogging disasters on cotton yield fluctuation in this cotton-production belt and to compare the accuracy of different meteorological yield separation methods for characterizing the correlations between waterlogging intensity and cotton climatic yields.Six provinces located in this belt were selected as the study areas,and the cotton climatic yields were calculated using various meteorological yield separation methods:linear fitness(LF),quadratic polynomial fitness(QP),cubic polynomial fitness(CP),HP filtering(HP),3-year moving average(TMA),5-year moving average(FMA),and five-point quadratic smoothing(FPQS).The performances of the employed methods were compared and well-performing methods were recommended.Specifically,the waterlogging intensity over cotton growth periods was quantified using the widely used standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index(SPEI).Next,according to the correlation between waterlogging intensity and cotton climatic yield,the performances of the seven methods were compared;in addition,this comparison was further performed on historical waterlogging area data.The results indicated that the long-term trends of cotton climatic yield derived from different methods were similar,whereas the short-term trends could be different or even opposite.The absolute values of the cotton climatic yield in Zhejiang Province were obviously lower than those in other provinces,indicating that the cotton plants in Zhejiang suffered much lower yield losses from climatic disasters.Regarding the correlation between waterlogging intensity and cotton climat

关 键 词：棉花 标准化降水蒸散指数 气象产量 涝渍灾害 长江中下游 HP滤波 

分 类 号：S271[农业科学—农业水土工程]