改进POT模型下尾矿坝综合预警值确定方法  

Determination method of comprehensive early-warning indexes for tailings dam based on improved POT model

作　　者：曾纪涵 章光[1] 吴浩 胡少华[1,3] ZENG Jihan;ZHANG Guang;WU Hao;HU Shaohua(School of Safety Science and Emergency Management,Wuhan University of Technology,Wuhan Hubei 430070,China;School of City and Environmental Sciences,Central China Normal University,Wuhan Hubei 430079,China;National Research Center for Dam Safety Engineering Technology,Wuhan Hubei 430070,China)

机构地区：[1]武汉理工大学安全科学与应急管理学院,湖北武汉430070 [2]华中师范大学城市与环境学院,湖北武汉430079 [3]国家大坝安全工程技术研究中心,湖北武汉430070

出　　处：《中国安全科学学报》2022年第5期134-139,共6页China Safety Science Journal

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助(51979208);国家大坝安全工程技术研究中心开放基金资助(CX2019B014);国家“十三五”重点研发计划重点专项项目(2017YFC0804600)。

摘　　要：为完善尾矿坝在线监测预警系统,结合尾矿坝定性指标和定量指标,提出尾矿坝综合预警模型。首先,将尾矿坝预警指标分为监测指标和非监测指标,分别计算2类指标权重,融合得到综合风险指数;然后,引入改进极值(POT)模型,构造综合风险指数的广义帕累托(GPD)函数,并求解函数参数,结合3σ准则确定尾矿坝的综合预警值;最后,以湖北省某尾矿坝为例进行实例分析。结果表明:尾矿坝综合预警模型能够弥补传统单指标预警模型风险信息反映有限的缺点,并计算得到黄色、橙色、红色综合预警值分别为66.538、71.387、80.585;与云模型(CM)计算结果对比,证明尾矿坝综合预警模型具有一定的科学性和有效性。In order to improve online monitoring and early-warning system of tailings dam,a comprehensive early-warning model was proposed based on qualitative indexes and quantitative indexes.Firstly,warning indexes were divided into monitoring indexes and non-monitoring ones whose weights were evaluated respectively,and comprehensive risk values were obtained.Then,an improved POT model was introduced,grand Pareto distuibution(GPD)function of risk indicators was established and solved,and comprehensive early-warning values were determined according to 3σcriterion.Finally,case analysis was conducted with a tailings dam in Hubei Province as an example.The results show that the proposed comprehensive early-warning model can make up for limitations of traditional single-indicator models,and warning values of yellow level,orange level and red level are calculated to be 66.538,71.387 and 80.585 respectively.Compared with the results of cloud model(CM),it is proved that the proposed model has rationality and effectiveness.

关 键 词：极值(POT)模型 尾矿坝 综合预警 在线监测 指标融合 风险指数 

分 类 号：X936[环境科学与工程—安全科学]