基于灰色预测模型的寿光蔬菜物流需求预测  

Demand Forecasting of Vegetable Logistics in Shouguang Based on Grey Forecasting Model

作　　者：冯志鹏 张远扬 葛凤仪 FENG Zhi-peng;ZHANG Yuan-yang;GE Feng-yi(Dalian Jiaotong University,Dalian 116028,China)

机构地区：[1]大连交通大学,辽宁大连116028

出　　处：《物流工程与管理》2022年第5期73-75,126,共4页Logistics Engineering and Management

摘　　要：农产品物流是保障民生的关键,蔬菜运输在农产品物流中占比颇高,因此建立精确的蔬菜物流需求预测模型是合理规划农产品物流资源的重要依据。文中以寿光市为例,采用灰色预测法中的GM(1,1)模型对其自产的蔬菜进行物流需求预测,并对其进行了相应的精度检验,结果显示预测模型精确度较高,于是在此基础上完成对寿光市自产蔬菜未来三年的物流需求量预测,期望能为政府和企业制定蔬菜产业政策、规划运输资源提供参考。Agricultural products logistics is the key to ensuring people s livelihood,and vegetable transportation accounts for a high proportion in agricultural products logistics.Therefore,the establishment of an accurate vegetable logistics demand forecasting model is an important basis for rational planning of agricultural products logistics resources.Taking Shouguang as an example,this paper forecasts the logistics demand of its own-grown vegetables by using GM(1,1)model in the grey forecasting method,and tests its accuracy accordingly.The results show that the forecasting model has higher accuracy,on this basis,we forecast the logistics demand of Shouguang s home-grown vegetables in the next three years,which is expected to provide a reference for the government and enterprises to formulate policies on vegetable industry and plan transportation resources.

关 键 词：寿光 蔬菜物流 需求预测 GM(1 1)模型 

分 类 号：F326.6[经济管理—产业经济]