国家安全系统风险评估研究  

The Study on Risk Assessment of National Security System

作　　者：黄丽达 邓青 陈建国[1] HUANG Lida;DENG Qing;CHEN Jianguo(Institute of Public Safety Research,Tsinghua University,Beijing 100084,China;不详)

机构地区：[1]清华大学公共安全研究院,北京100084 [2]北京科技大学土木与资源工程学院,北京100083 [3]北京科技大学大安全科学研究院,北京100083

出　　处：《武汉理工大学学报（信息与管理工程版）》2022年第2期173-181,共9页Journal of Wuhan University of Technology：Information & Management Engineering

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(72174099,72004113).

摘　　要：通过梳理当前我国国家安全的主要影响要素,探讨构建一种监测和评价国家安全综合风险的指标体系。为解决指标体系构建存在的随意性和冗余性等问题,从指标的入选准则和指标体系的层次关系入手,建立指标选择优化模型,删除一些不敏感、不典型的指标,将指标数目从186个缩减至165个,在保证指标体系完备性的同时满足科学性和简洁性。应用该指标体系,选取社会安全子系统和国土安全子系统进行实证分析。结果表明,提出的国家安全系统风险评估方法可以对国家安全总体态势进行评估,比较符合当前的国家安全形势现状,评估得到的重点关注领域值得重视。By means of sorting out the main risk factors of China′s national security,this paper discusses the establishment of an index system for monitoring and evaluating the comprehensive risk of national security.Then,an optimization model has been set up from the inclusion criteria of indicators and the hierarchical relation of the indicators system to solve the problems of randomness and redundancy during indicator selection.With this selection model,some insensitive or untypical indicators has been deleted and the number of indicators have been optimized from 186 to 165,which satisfies the demand of science and simplicity.Using the optimized indicators system,social security subsystem and homeland security subsystem are selected for empirical analysis.The results show that the national security risk evaluation method proposed in this paper can assess the risk systematically and conform to the situation of current national security,and the critical focus areas obtained from analysis are worthy of attention.

关 键 词：国家安全系统 风险评估 评价指标体系 指标优化 态势演化 

分 类 号：X913[环境科学与工程—安全科学]