结合模型预测与目标规划的原材料订购策略  

Raw material ordering policy combining model prediction and objective programming

作　　者：王慧[1] 宋栋 郭渊博[1] Wang Hui;Song Dong;Guo Yuanbo(Cryptography Engineering Institute,Information Engineering University,Zhengzhou,Henan 450001,China;Beijing Institute of Satellite Information Engineering)

机构地区：[1]战略支援部队信息工程大学密码工程学院,河南郑州450001 [2]北京卫星信息工程研究所

出　　处：《计算机时代》2022年第6期37-39,43,共4页Computer Era

摘　　要：研究如何在产量柔性条件下确定供货量和订购量,以助企业取得最佳的预期收益。首先运用SARIMA模型预测未来24周里每周供货商应满足的订货量,然后以保障生产稳定性和原材料订购结构优化为目标,建立目标规划模型;同时,考虑到实际供货量可能多于或少于订货量,引入风险因子反映供货量的波动特征;最后制定每周最经济的订购策略。实验结果表明,该模型具有良好的鲁棒性。In this paper,we mainly focus on how to determine the quantity of supply and order under the condition of volume flexibility,so as to help the enterprise obtain the best expected profit.SARIMA model is used to predict the weekly order quantity that suppliers should meet in the next 24 weeks,and then an objective programming model is established to ensure production stability and optimization of raw material ordering structure.Considering that the actual supply may be more or less than the order,a risk factor is introduced to reflect the fluctuation characteristics of the supply.Finally,the most economical ordering strategy for each week is formulated.Experimental result shows that the model has good robustness.

关 键 词：订购决策 目标规划 SARIMA模型 风险因子 

分 类 号：TP399[自动化与计算机技术—计算机应用技术]