多政策叠加下的东盟地缘政治风险及对中国与东盟合作的影响  

ASEAN Geopolitical Risks under the Superposition of Multiple Policies and Its Impact on China and ASEAN’S Cooperation

作　　者：吴俊 黄宏军 王雷 WU Jun;HUANG Hongjun;WANG Lei(School of Business,Guilin University of Electronic Technology,Guilin 541004,China)

机构地区：[1]桂林电子科技大学商学院,广西桂林541004

出　　处：《南海学刊》2022年第3期78-87,共10页The Journal of South China Sea Studies

基　　金：广西哲学社会科学规划课题(21FYJ048);广西壮族自治区大学生创业训练项目(2022)。

摘　　要：受外部势力的干扰和内部发展的需要,东盟形成了多边主义框架下的单边主义特点,从而导致东盟面临的地缘政治风险存在较大不确定性。通过采用博弈论和计量模型相结合的方法分析发现,多政策叠加对降低东盟地缘政治风险效应边际减弱;东盟依靠内部合作并不能有效地增进互信,为进一步提升各自利益倾向于与域外国家签订更多合作协定,导致东盟地缘政治面临外部不确定性。中国与东盟的合作前景较好,可循序推进。Due to the interference of external forces and the needs of ASEAN’s internal development,ASEAN has formed the characteristics of unilateralism under the framework of multilateralism,leading to greater uncertainty in the geopolitical risks faced by ASEAN.Through the analysis method combining game theory and econometric model,it is found that the effect of multi policy stacking on reducing geopolitical risk in ASEAN is marginally weakened.ASEAN cannot effectively enhance mutual trust by relying on internal cooperation.In order to further enhance their respective interests,ASEAN tends to sign more cooperation agreements with countries outside the region,resulting in external uncertainties in ASEAN geopolitics.The cooperation between China and ASEAN has good prospects and can be promoted in an orderly manner.

关 键 词：多政策叠加 东盟 RCEP “一带一路”倡议 地缘政治风险 

分 类 号：F752.7[经济管理—国际贸易] P814.1[经济管理—产业经济]