货币供应量作为货币政策中介目标的有效性研究  

A Study of the Effectiveness of Money Supply as an Intermediary Target of Monetary Policy

作　　者：范从来[1] 张宏亮 FAN Cong-lai;ZHANG Hong-liang

机构地区：[1]南京大学长江三角洲经济社会发展研究中心,南京210008

出　　处：《金融论坛》2022年第3期3-12,共10页Finance Forum

基　　金：教育部创新团队发展计划滚动支持项目“经济转型期稳定物价的货币政策(IRT17R52)”,主持人:范从来。

摘　　要：本文利用2000-2019年宏观金融数据,计算中国货币的流通速度和货币乘数,对比2002年以前的数据,分析货币供应量作为货币政策中介目标的有效性,甄别三个不同货币供应层的作用差异,剖析其背后的经济学原理。研究发现,作为货币中介目标,货币供应量对经济增长和物价水平依然有效,其中狭义货币M1的稳定增长对GDP增速的提高具有显著长期倾向,M0和央行的资金投放对居民消费价格指数有着直接影响,广义货币M2对资产价格的影响并没有能够反映到通货膨胀度量体系中。This paper uses the macro-financial data during 2000-2019 to calculate the circulation speed and money multiplier of China’s currency,compares the data before 2002 to analyze the effectiveness of money supply as an intermediary target of monetary policy,identifies the differences between the roles of three money supply layers,and analyzes the economic principles of the differences.It is found that,as a monetary intermediary target,the money supply is still effective for economic growth and price level;the stable growth of narrow money M;has a significant long-term effectiveness on the increase of GDP growth;the M;and the central bank’s liquidity investment have a direct and significant impact on the consumer price index;the impact of broad money M;on asset price has not been reflected in the inflation measurement system.

关 键 词：货币政策 中介目标 货币供应量 经济增长 物价稳定 

分 类 号：F822[经济管理—财政学] F832