基于非对称演化博弈的应急疏散人员行为冲突研究  

Study on behavior conflict of emergency evacuation personnel based on asymmetric evolutionary game

作　　者：冯绍红[1] 翟龙真 陈佳贤 FENG Shaohong;ZHAI Longzhen;CHEN Jiaxian(College of Economics and Management,Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics,Nanjing Jiangsu 211100,China)

机构地区：[1]南京航空航天大学经济与管理学院,江苏南京211100

出　　处：《中国安全生产科学技术》2022年第5期25-30,共6页Journal of Safety Science and Technology

基　　金：中国民用航空局安全能力建设项目(ASSA2021/)。

摘　　要：为了真实地描述紧急疏散过程中人员行为冲突的演化过程,提高疏散效率,基于非对称性演化博弈模型,首先,从生理角度出发,界定人员之间的非对称性;其次,基于非对称性“鹰鸽博弈”模型,探析各人员策略选择的规律,分析非对称性因子、冲突的成本收益对系统稳定与合作状态概率的影响;最后,在此基础上,探讨博弈双方的合作心理收益对系统演化的影响。研究结果表明:非对称性因子越大,冲突的单位成本越小,越有利于人员合作行为的演化;较大的合作心理收益促使双方开展合作。非对称性“鹰鸽博弈”模型揭示应急疏散情形下人员冲突行为的演化规律,为推动疏散人员开展合作,减少冲突,提高突发事件下的疏散效率提供参考。To truly describe the evolution process of the behavior conflict of personnel in the process of emergency evacuation and improve the evacuation efficiency,an asymmetric evolutionary game model was established.Firstly,the asymmetry between personnel was defined from the perspective of physiology.Then,based on the asymmetric“hawk-dove game”model,the rules of strategy selection of each person were studied,and the influence of asymmetry factor and cost benefit of conflict on the system stability and cooperative state probability was analyzed.Finally,the influence of the psychological benefits of cooperation between the two parties in the game on the evolution of the system was explored on this basis.The results showed that the greater the asymmetry factor,the lower the unit cost of conflict,and the more conducive to the evolution of personnel cooperative behavior.The greater psychological benefits of cooperation encouraged both parties to cooperate.The asymmetric“hawk-dove game”model revealed the evolution rules of personnel conflict behavior in the emergency evacuation,and provides reference for promoting the cooperation among evacuees,reducing the conflict,and improving the evacuation efficiency in emergencies.

关 键 词：应急疏散 行为冲突 非对称性 鹰鸽博弈 

分 类 号：X951[环境科学与工程—安全科学] X913.4