基于物元理论与证据理论的反导预警中段识别预案评估方法  

An Evaluation Method of Midcourse Recognition Plan in Anti-missile Early Warning Based on Matter-Element Theory and Evidence Theory

作　　者：张晨[1,2] 丁建江 徐颖[1] 邱望晟[1] ZHANG Chen;DING Jianjiang;XU Ying;QIU Wangsheng(Air Force Early Warning Academy,Wuhan 430000,China;College of Information and Communication,National University of Defense Technology,Wuhan 430000,China)

机构地区：[1]空军预警学院,武汉430000 [2]国防科技大学信息通信学院,武汉430000

出　　处：《电光与控制》2022年第6期32-36,49,共6页Electronics Optics & Control

基　　金：2018年度全军军事学研究生资助课题。

摘　　要：为了使设计的弹道导弹中段识别预案更加贴近实战场景,必须对预案进行评估分析。结合实际作战场景和已具备的探测能力水平,建立了反导预警中段识别预案评估指标体系,并对不同的指标进行解释说明。之后,邀请专家对待评估预案进行指标打分,利用物元理论的方法求出待评估预案各项指标的关联度。在此基础上,通过归一化的处理方法将物元理论与证据理论有机结合,并利用证据理论合成规则公式确立了预案所属等级。经实验证明,该方法可有效解决证据理论中mass函数获取困难且主观性较强的问题,从而使合成结果更加客观、准确,评估结论更具有说服力。In order to make the midcourse recognition plan of ballistic missile more close to the actual combat scene,it is necessary to evaluate and analyze the plan.According to the actual combat scene and the existing detection capability level,an evaluation index system of the midcourse recognition plan for anti-missile early-warning is established, and the meaning of different indexes is explained.After that,experts are invited to score the indexes of the plan to be evaluated,and the correlation degree between the indexes of the plan to be evaluated is calculated by using the method of matter-element theory.On this basis,the matter-element theory and the evidence theory are organically combined by using the normalized processing method,and the level to which the plan belongs is determined by using the formula of synthesis rules in the evidence theory.Experiments have proved that this method can effectively reduce the difficulty of obtaining mass functions in the evidence theory and their high subjectivity,which makes the synthetic result more objective and accurate,and the evaluation conclusion more convincing.

关 键 词：物元理论 证据理论 中段识别 预案 评估 

分 类 号：E919[军事]