外汇风险感知是否抑制企业投资扩张--基于世界银行企业调查的跨国分析  

Dose Foreign Exchange Risk Perception Inhibit Corporate Investment Expansio——Cross-country Analysis Based on the World Bank Enterprise Survey

作　　者：郭平 胡君 朱甜甜 Guo Ping;Hu Jun;Zhu Tiantian(Nanjing University of Finance and Economics,Nanjing 210023,Jiangsu,China;Yunnan Universtiy,Kunming 650091,Yunnan,China)

机构地区：[1]南京财经大学金融学院,江苏南京210023 [2]云南大学经济学院,云南昆明650091

出　　处：《金融发展研究》2022年第5期49-58,共10页Journal Of Financial Development Research

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目“贸易政策不确定性对中国企业出口的风险溢出与应对策略研究”(71863036);国家自然科学基金项目“技术进步偏向对资本回报率变动的影响机理研究”(71863035);教育部人文社科基金项目“激发和保护企业家精神的区域增长效应——基于数量与质量的双重视角”(18XJC790004)。

摘　　要：世界经济环境不确定性背景下汇率风险将冲击国内实体经济,企业外汇风险感知是否抑制企业投资扩张是我国防范外部风险输入引发国内经济风险所面临的重要问题。本文采用世界银行企业调查的跨国数据,利用企业层面关于外汇风险感知的主观评价指标,实证检验外汇风险感知对企业投资扩张的影响,并进一步分析国家宏观制度的调节效应。实证结果发现:(1)外汇风险感知将显著抑制企业投资扩张,这一结果在考虑内生性、指标选取、模型设定等问题后仍然稳健;(2)企业的风险预期、投资不可逆性以及融资约束程度越高,企业投资扩张受到外汇风险感知的抑制作用越明显;(3)一国具有较高金融发展水平、较低汇率制度弹性、较低资本开放程度以及更高效的中央银行调控政策与国家治理水平,外汇风险感知对企业投资的抑制作用将会被削弱。Under the background of world economic environment uncertainty,the exchange rate risk will impact the domestic real economy,Whether corporate foreign exchange risk perception inhibits corporate investment expansion is an important issue facing China in preventing domestic economic risks arising from external risk input.This paper uses cross-country data from the World Bank Enterprise Survey to empirically test the impact of foreign exchange risk perception on firms'investment expansion using firm-level subjective evaluation indicators on foreign exchange risk perception,and further analyzes the moderating effect of the national macro system.The empirical results find that:(1)the perception of foreign exchange risk will significantly inhibit firms'investment expansion,a result that remains robust after accounting for endogeneity,indicator selection,and model setting;(2)the higher the firm's risk expectations,investment irreversibility,and degree of financing constraints,the more pronounced the inhibiting effect of foreign exchange risk perception on firm investment expansion;(3)a country with a higher level of financial development,a less flexible exchange rate regime,a lower degree of capital openness,and a more efficient level of central bank regulatory policy and state governance will have a weakening effect of foreign exchange risk perceptions as a disincentive to business investment.

关 键 词：汇率波动 风险感知 企业投资行为 宏观制度环境 

分 类 号：F321[经济管理—产业经济]