关于中国储蓄投资转化影响因素的分析与再认识  

An Analysis and Re-understanding of the Influencing Factors of China’s Savings Investment Conversion

作　　者：祁玉清[1] Qi Yuqing

机构地区：[1]中国宏观经济研究院经济体制与管理研究所

出　　处：《宏观经济研究》2022年第3期5-15,45,共12页Macroeconomics

摘　　要：中国经济发展总体是“高储蓄、高投资和企业高杠杆”,储蓄率存在高估和低估的因素,但从可支配资金的角度看总体是高估。中国已经建立了覆盖银行间市场、交易所市场、银行柜台市场和非公开股权交易市场等金融体系,但自我积累、贷款和债券是企业投资的主要资金来源,住户部门的投资渠道仍然狭窄,丰富的金融产品难以掩盖中国金融市场制度性、结构性缺陷。现阶段,中国个人住房贷款在储蓄投资转化中有明显的资金分流作用,外商和对外直接投资对国内投资影响总体在减弱,相对宽松的货币政策能对储蓄投资转化不足起到一定的补偿作用。提高储蓄投资转化效率,应以资产价格变化和预期通货膨胀率为调控目标,进一步优化货币政策调控机制,避免结构性货币政策工具泛化使用,提升债券市场的定向性、层次化发展水平,健全证券市场层次结构,推动产业投资基金与股票市场有效对接。China’s economic development is generally characterized by’high savings,high investment and high corporate leverage’.The savings rate is over-and under-estimated,but from the perspective of disposable funds,it is generally over-estimated.China has established a financial system covering interbank market,exchange market,over-the-counter market,and non-public equity market,but self-accumulation,loans and bonds are the main sources of funds for corporate investment,and the investment channels for the household sector are still narrow,and the abundance of financial products can hardly cover the institutional structural defects of China’s financial market.At this stage,China’s personal housing loans have an obvious role in diverting funds from savings investment conversion,the influence of foreign and outward direct investment on domestic investment is generally weakening,and the relatively loose monetary policy can play a certain role in compensating for the lack of savings investment conversion.To improve the efficiency of savings investment conversion,we should take asset price changes and expected inflation rate as the regulatory targets,further optimize the monetary policy control mechanism,avoid the generalized use of structural monetary policy tools,enhance the directional and hierarchical development of the bond market,improve the hierarchical structure of the securities market,and promote the effective docking of industrial investment funds with the stock market.

关 键 词：储蓄投资转化 储蓄率 货币政策 金融市场 

分 类 号：F832.2[经济管理—金融学]