消费倾向的国际比较与促进中国消费倾向稳步提升的建议  

International Comparison of Propensity to Consume and Suggestions for Promoting Steady Improvement of Propensity to Consume in China

作　　者：王蕴[1] 姜雪 李清彬[2] 姚晓明 Wang Yun;Jiang Xue;Li Qingbin;Yao Xiaomin

机构地区：[1]中国宏观经济研究院对外经济研究所 [2]中国宏观经济研究院经济研究所

出　　处：《宏观经济研究》2022年第3期30-45,共16页Macroeconomics

摘　　要：构建新发展格局要求坚定实施扩大内需,不断释放居民消费潜力。消费倾向高低直接决定着消费潜力的释放程度。对发达国家在与中国相似发展阶段的消费倾向比较研究表明,人均GDP5000~20000美元期间,消费倾向变动较大,总体呈U型变化;之后进入相对稳定区间。中国消费倾向变化符合一般趋势,并已进入由降转升阶段,与发达国家的差距在明显缩小。消费倾向受到收入分配差距、人口抚养比、收入来源结构、社会保障以及传统文化等因素影响。综合判断,中国消费倾向将继续稳中有升,2025年有望提高至72%左右。应以制度健全和政策调整完善为着力点,从提高消费能力、扩大中等收入群体、实施分类消费促进政策和完善消费环境等方面促进消费倾向稳步提升,以有效释放消费潜力,支撑增强内生增长动力。The construction of a new development pattern requires the firm implementation of expanding domestic demand and continuously releasing the consumption potential of the population.The level of propensity to consume directly determines the degree of unleashing consumption potential.A comparative study of the propensity to consume in developed countries at a similar stage of development as China shows that the propensity to consume varies considerably between US$5,000 and US$20,000 per capita GDP,with an overall U-shaped change;after that,it enters a relatively stable range.China’s propensity to consume is in line with the general trend,and has entered the stage of decline to rise,and the gap with developed countries is narrowing significantly.The propensity to consume is influenced by the income distribution gap,population dependency ratio,income source structure,social security,and traditional culture.A comprehensive judgment shows that China’s propensity to consume will continue to rise steadily and is expected to increase to about 72%in 2025.A sound system and improved policy adjustments should be used as the focus to promote a steady increase in propensity to consume in terms of improving consumption capacity,expanding the middle-income group,implementing classified consumption promotion policies,and improving the consumption environment,in order to effectively release consumption potential and support the enhancement of endogenous growth momentum.

关 键 词：消费倾向 国际比较 新发展格局 

分 类 号：F126.1[经济管理—世界经济]