基于风电出力场景集的电力现货市场两阶段随机规划模型  

Two-stage stochastic programming model for electricity spot market based on wind power output scenario set

作　　者：杨春祥 张烜榕 姚巽 李毓中 汤文 刘威[2] YANG Chunxiang;ZHANG Xuanrong;YAO Xun;LI Yuzhong;TANG Wen;LIU Wei(State Grid Gansu Electric Power Company Lanzhou Power Supply Company,Lanzhou 730050,China;Fuzhou University,Fuzhou 350108,China)

机构地区：[1]国网甘肃省电力公司,甘肃兰州730050 [2]福州大学,福建福州350108

出　　处：《供用电》2022年第6期76-82,91,共8页Distribution & Utilization

基　　金：福建省自然科学基金资助项目(2019J01249)。

摘　　要：随着风电装机规模不断扩大,如何增强电网对风电的消纳能力并提高电力系统优化调度的经济性成为亟待解决的问题。由于风电出力具有不确定性,现有的预测方法无法实现对风电出力较高精度的预测,因此风电接入将会给电力系统带来较多的不确定因素。采用静态场景法生成风电出力场景集,并在电力现货市场环境下,建立了基于风电出力场景集的两阶段随机规划模型,以应对风电大规模集中式并网给电力系统带来的冲击。该模型以风电出力场景集刻画风电出力在实时调度阶段的不确定性,以电力现货市场中日前市场的燃料成本与实时市场中各场景下实时调节的期望成本之和为优化目标。最后在IEEE-30节点系统进行仿真,验证了该模型的有效性。With the continuous expansion of the scale of wind power,how to enhance the consumption capacity of wind power,and improve the economics of power system optimization scheduling is an urgent problem to be solved.Due to the uncertainty of wind power output,the existing forecasting methods cannot achieve high-precision forecasting of wind power output,which brings more uncertain factors to the power system.In order to cope with the impact of large-scale centralized wind power grid integration on the power system,this article uses the static scenario method to generate a wind power output scenario set,and in the power spot market environment,establishes a two-stage stochastic programming model based on the wind power output scenario set.The model uses wind power output scenarios to describe the uncertainty of wind power output in the real-time dispatch phase,and takes the sum of the fuel cost of the day-ahead market in the power spot market and the expected cost of real-time adjustment in each scenario in the real-time market as the optimization goal.Finally,the effectiveness of the proposed model is verified with the simulation of IEEE-30 node system.

关 键 词：电力现货市场 拉丁超立方抽样 风电出力场景集 二阶段随机规划 日前市场 实时市场 

分 类 号：F426[经济管理—产业经济]