3种蝗虫在中国的适生区预测  

Potential geographical distributions of three species of locusts in China

作　　者：杨丽君 李红卫 滕凯 谌爱东[4] 李向永[4] 于艳雪[1] Yang Lijun;Li Hongwei;TengKai;Shen Aidong;Li Xiangyong;Yu Yanxue(Institute of Plant Inspection and Quarantine,Chinese Academy of Inspection and Quarantine,Beijing 100176,China;College of Plant Protection,China Agricultural University;Animal and Plant Quarantine Office of Shanghai Customs District;Agricultural Environment and Resources Institute,Yunnan Academy of Agricultural Sciences)

机构地区：[1]中国检验检疫科学研究院植物检验与检疫研究所,北京100176 [2]中国农业大学植物保护学院 [3]上海海关动植物检疫处 [4]云南省农业科学院农业环境资源研究所

出　　处：《植物检疫》2022年第3期60-66,共7页Plant Quarantine

基　　金：中国检验检疫科学研究院基本科研业务费专项(2020JK005)。

摘　　要：分析东亚飞蝗(Locusta migratoria manilensis Meyen)、沙漠蝗(Schistocerca gregaria Forskal)和黄脊竹蝗(Ceracris kiangsu Tsai)在中国的潜在适生区,为检疫和监测防控工作提供依据。基于气候环境因子和3种蝗虫的全球地理分布情况,通过MaxEnt模型和ArcGIS软件预测3种蝗虫当前以及未来(2050、2070年)在我国的潜在适生区。预测3种蝗虫当前在我国的潜在适生区面积占我国国土总面积的比例分别为35.05%、13.21%和22.13%,高度适生区面积占比分别为12.08%、1.10%、7.56%。影响最大的环境变量均是最暖季度降水量(Bio18)。预测结果显示这3种蝗虫在我国具有广泛的潜在适生区,建议监测防控部门对其适生区加强监测管理,以保障我国农林业安全。To provide a basis for quarantine and control of pest,the potential geographical distribution of Locusta migratoria manilensis Meyen,Schistocerca gregaria Forskal and Ceracris kiangsu Tsai in China were predicted.Based on the climatic and environmental factors and the global geographical distribution of the three locusts,the potential habitats of them in China at present and in the future(2050 and 2070)were predicted by MaxEnt model and ArcGIS software.The total potential suitable area of the three locusts in China at present was predicted to be 35.05%,13.21%and 22.13%of total land area of China,respectively.And percentage of the highly suitable areas in China was estimated to be 12.18%,1.10%and 7.56%,respectively.The most influential environmental variables are the precipitation of warmest quarter(Bio18).The prediction results showed that potential geographical distribution of three species of locusts in China was wide,suggesting that the monitoring and management of their habitat range should be strengthen to ensure the safety of agroforestry in China.

关 键 词：东亚飞蝗 沙漠蝗 黄脊竹蝗 MaxEnt模型 适生区 

分 类 号：S431.2[农业科学—农业昆虫与害虫防治]