地价高估、公共投资与资源错配  

Land Price Bubble, Public Investment and Resource Misallocation

作　　者：赵扶扬 ZHAO Fuyang(School of Economics,Central University of Finance and Economics)

机构地区：[1]中央财经大学经济学院,100081

出　　处：《经济研究》2022年第3期155-172,共18页Economic Research Journal

基　　金：国家自然科学基金青年项目(72003211)的阶段性成果;国家社会科学基金重大项目(21ZDA034);教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金项目(20YJC790184)的支持。

摘　　要：地方政府通过土地的出让和抵押为公共投资进行融资,是以土地价格快速上涨为基础的。当前我国住宅和商服用地的价格水平较高,已经超出了基本使用价值,存在高估。本文在资产泡沫理论框架中,引入地方政府土地融资行为和公共投资行为并构建模型,该模型可以产生多重均衡,即土地价格处在基本面的均衡和高于基本面的均衡。高估的土地价格为地方政府提供流动性,放松了融资约束。但地价高估导致了资源错配:公共资本的过度积累和地方政府债务的扩张提高了金融市场利率,潜在地挤出商业投资,抑制产出水平。尽管存在资源错配,但直接刺破高估价值将使地方政府债务失去土地融资的支撑,可能会在短期带来金融系统稳定和地方财政可持续性的两难选择,从而对实体经济带来负面影响。本文讨论了能够平抑地价并兼顾短期稳定和长期效率的宏观审慎政策。Since the 2008 global financial crisis, along with the shrinking of external demand and the slowdown of industrial growth, local public investment in infrastructure has become the driving force of Chinese economic growth. Meanwhile, local governments’ behaviors of land allocation and land financing have become more complex. In fact, the fundamental support for the large-scale local governments’ land financing and public investment is the soaring land price. As shown in data, the growth of real commercial and residential land price has been rising, much higher than that of industrial land, as well as that of Chinese real GDP. Motivated by the above observations, this paper investigates the following questions. Is there any bubble in China’s soaring land prices? And if there is, how does it influence the macro economy?In the framework of asset bubble theory, this paper introduces local governments’ land financing behavior and public investment behavior with Chinese characteristics. The model can produce multiple equilibra, one with land price bubbles and one without bubbles. The reason why the land price bubbles can exist is the function of liquidity provision. Local governments have strong incentives to increase public investment, but are constrained by the fiscal budget. Land price bubbles can relax the government constraints by increasing land sales and land-collateralized debt financing. However, land price bubbles may not be a gospel for the whole economy. Theoretical analysis at the model’s steady states shows that, relative to the bubbleless equilibrium, business investment is more likely to be crowded out under the bubbly equilibrium. The reason is that land price bubbles increase the value of collateralized land, which expands local governments’ debt and raises the financing cost. What is more, under the bubbly equilibrium, the over-invested public capital suffers from low efficiency problem. If the output elasticity of public capital is not high enough, the positive effect of public capital in

关 键 词：土地价格高估 多重均衡 公共投资 资源错配 宏观审慎 

分 类 号：F301.3[经济管理—产业经济]