目的国进口偏好差异化与中国跨境电子商务出口——兼论贸易演变的逻辑  

Differentiation in Destinations’ Import Preference and China’s Cross-border E-commerce Exports: Concurrently on the Logic of Trade Evolution

作　　者：郭继文 马述忠[1] GUO Jiwen;MA Shuzhong(China Academy of Digital Trade,Zhejiang University)

机构地区：[1]浙江大学中国数字贸易研究院,310058

出　　处：《经济研究》2022年第3期191-208,共18页Economic Research Journal

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目(71973120);国家社科基金重大项目(20ZDA103);国家重点研发计划重点专项项目(2018YFB1403200)资助。

摘　　要：数字经济时代消费者日益凸显的个性化、差异化偏好能够通过跨境电商被直接满足,是数字贸易区别于传统贸易的重要表现。本文基于CEPII的HS6位贸易数据测度了各国进口偏好差异化程度,并结合中国跨境电商的详细物流数据构造了行业—年份—目的国层面的微观面板数据集,在此基础上实证检验了目的国进口偏好差异化对中国跨境电商出口的影响。研究发现:第一,目的国进口偏好差异化程度越大,中国对其跨境电商出口越多,核心机制在于该类市场为跨境电商提供了更多的市场机会;第二,上述效应在差异化产品、消费品、中间品贸易中表现更加明显;第三,对效应进一步分解发现,目的国的差异化偏好主要能够提升中国对其跨境电商出口的扩展边际、数量边际及出口概率;第四,通过构造同一篮子的传统贸易样本对比研究发现,目的国进口偏好差异化程度越大,中国对其传统贸易出口越少,呈现出与跨境电商相反的结果,这背后反映出从传统贸易向数字贸易演变的过程中,出口企业的生产、交易及获利模式发生了明显变化。本文在一定程度上丰富了有关偏好与贸易关系的研究,并为数字经济时代下我国如何进一步发展壮大跨境电商产业提供了富有价值的参考。In the digital era, there is a growing trend that consumers pursue uniqueness and self-expression when they purchase goods or services, indicating an increasingly prominent differentiation of consumer preference, which intrinsically varies from the preference similarity in the theory of representative demand and preference for variety in the new trade theory. The products in traditional trade tend to be standardized to achieve economies of scale, thus meeting the preference differentiation with great difficulty. As a combination of international trade and information and communication technology(ICT), cross-border e-commerce( CBEC), with lower transaction costs and more selections of products, plays an important role in breaking through the above dilemma. CBEC can connect with overseas consumers directly and immediately through internet platforms, thus capturing and gratifying their preference differentiation efficiently. When choosing export markets, firms often comprehensively consider their actual strength and the characteristics of destinations and then enter the markets with more opportunities. For CBEC firms which mainly make profits by providing diversified products and personalized customization, the markets with more preference differentiation usually imply more profit opportunities, thus having a more significant attraction for CBEC firms to export.This paper aims to investigate the impact of the preference differentiation in destinations on China’s CBEC export choice. Because the differentiation of consumer preference is difficult to be measured directly, we take the preference differentiation in destinations’ imports, which is highly associated with that in destinations’ consumption, as a proxy variable. Specifically, we want to address four issues: the causal relationship between preference differentiation in destinations’ imports and China’s CBEC exports to this country, the effect heterogeneity in trade margins and product categories, the channels through which the effect operates, and th

关 键 词：跨境电商 传统贸易 偏好差异化 引力模型 贸易演变 

分 类 号：F724.6[经济管理—产业经济] F752.62