中国农业供给冲击对通货膨胀的动态影响  

Analysis of the Dynamic Impact of Agricultural Supply Shock on Inflation in China

作　　者：聂飒[1] NIE Sa

机构地区：[1]云南民族大学经济学院,云南昆明650031

出　　处：《华侨大学学报（哲学社会科学版）》2022年第3期93-98,共6页Journal of Huaqiao University(Philosophy & Social Sciences)

基　　金：国家社会科学基金一般项目“供给侧改革背景下中国通货膨胀动态行为及其宏观经济效应研究”(19BTJ021)。

摘　　要：在三角模型基础上进一步构建动态面板模型实证检验中国通货膨胀受到通胀惯性、产出缺口及农业供给冲击的影响,研究表明中国通货膨胀受到上述三个因素的显著影响,其中农业供给冲击产生明显的正向影响且呈现递减趋势,其作用明显大于产出缺口及通胀惯性,且长期内农业供给冲击对通胀产生负向作用;通胀惯性可能产生正反两个方向的影响;产出缺口则一直产生正向冲击影响。This paper constructs a dynamic panel model to test the impact of inflation inertia,output gap and agricultural supply shock on China’s inflation based on the triangle model in China.This results show that China’s inflation is significantly influenced by the above three factors,among which the agricultural supply shock has an obvious positive effect,showing a decreasing trend,and its effect is obviously greater than the output gap and inflation inertia,but the agricultural supply shock has a negative effect on inflation in the long run;inflation inertia can work both ways;output gap has always had a positive impact.

关 键 词：农业供给冲击 通货膨胀动态行为 动态面板数据模型 系统GMM估计 

分 类 号：F821.5[经济管理—财政学] F325.2