基于Markov-FLUS模型的饶河流域土地利用多情景模拟分析  

Land use multi-scenario simulation analysis of Rao River Basin based on Markov-FLUS model

作　　者：陈理庭 蔡海生[1,2] 张婷 张学玲[1] 曾珩[3] CHEN Liting;CAI Haisheng;ZHANG Ting;ZHANG Xueling;ZENG Heng(Key Laboratory of Po-yang Lake Watershed Agricultural Resources and Ecology/Development Research Center of Selenium-rich Agricultural Industry,Jiangxi Agricultural University,Nanchang 330045,China;Jiangxi Tourism and Commerce Vocational College,Nanchang 330100,China;Jiangxi Land Development and Consolidation Center,Nanchang 330002,China)

机构地区：[1]江西农业大学鄱阳湖流域农业资源与生态重点实验室/江西农业大学富硒农业产业发展研究中心,南昌330045 [2]江西旅游商贸职业学院,南昌330100 [3]江西省土地开发整理中心,南昌330002

出　　处：《生态学报》2022年第10期3947-3958,共12页Acta Ecologica Sinica

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(31660140,31560150);江西省十三五社科规划项目(17YJ11);江西省土地开发整理中心项目(2019-026)。

摘　　要：流域在不同发展目标定位下的土地利用需求有所不同,科学合理调控土地利用变化是实现流域土地资源高效利用、生态-社会-经济协调发展的重要基石。以饶河流域为例,基于Markov-FLUS耦合模型综合考虑自然人为两方面,选取12类驱动因子,以2005年土地利用数据为初始值,利用2010、2015年实际土地利用类型数据进行验证改正模型,结合惯性发展、耕地保护、生态优先等情景设置,对2035年饶河流域土地利用进行模拟分析,以满足流域不同发展目标导向下的国土空间优化配置。研究结果表明:(1)该模型在饶河流域的适用性较强,模型总体精度达到98.01%,Kappa系数为0.9627,大于0.80,为今后该区域的土地利用模拟提供了方法借鉴。(2) 3种情景设置基本满足饶河流域不同发展诉求,针对不同发展目标,流域土地利用结构变化明显,其中耕地、建设用地变化显著。(3)惯性发展情景、耕地保护情景、生态优先情景下,建设用地扩张趋势分别为39%、16%、12%,表明落实耕地保护、生态优先政策需要加强约束建设用地扩张,进一步调整用地结构以提高土地利用效率。综上所述,基于Markov-FLUS模型对饶河流域土地利用进行多情景模拟,可以为流域未来国土空间规划及社会经济发展决策提供基础支撑和多重视角,对土地资源高效利用和生态环境保护具有重要意义。For watersheds with different land use needs under different development goal orientations, scientific and reasonable regulation of land use changes is an important cornerstone to achieve efficient land resource utilization and coordinated ecological-social-economic development in watersheds. Taking the Rao River Basin as an example, based on the Markov-FLUS coupled model with comprehensive consideration of both natural and anthropogenic aspects, 12 types of driving factors are selected, with 2005 land use data as the initial value, and actual land use type data from 2010 and 2015 are used to validate and correct the model, combined with scenario settings such as inertia development, cultivated land protection, and ecological priority. The simulation analysis of land use in the 2035 Rao River Basin is carried out to meet the optimal spatial allocation of national land under different development goal orientations of the basin. The results show that:(1) The model has strong applicability in the Rao River Basin, with an overall accuracy of 98.01% and the Kappa coefficient of 0.9627, which is greater than 0.80, providing a methodological reference for future land use simulations in the region.(2) The three scenario settings basically meet the different development demands of the Rao River Basin, and the land use structure of the basin changes significantly for different development goals, with the most significant changes in cultivated land and construction land under each scenario. It is mainly concentrated in Changjiang District, Zhushan District, Fuliang County, Leping City, Dexing City, and scattered in Poyang County and Wannian County. Under the inertia development scenario, construction land expands rapidly, with an increase of nearly 40%;under the cultivated land protection scenario, cultivated land shows the only positive growth, but the increase is only 1%;under the ecological priority scenario, forest land, grassland, and water area show increases at the same time, with 0.03%, 0.4%, and 1%, respectively.(3

关 键 词：Markov-FLUS模型 土地利用模拟 多情景目标 饶河流域 

分 类 号：F301.24[经济管理—产业经济]