生育对中国女性工资率的影响:基于队列视角的分析  

Impacts of Childbearing on Women’s Wage Rate in China:A Cohort Analysis

作　　者：陈卫[1] 董浩月 刘金菊[3] Chen Wei;Dong Haoyue;Liu Jinju

机构地区：[1]中国人民大学人口与发展研究中心 [2]中国人民大学社会与人口学院 [3]北京城市学院公共管理学部

出　　处：《统计研究》2022年第5期119-133,共15页Statistical Research

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目“基于工作生命表估计的中国女性‘生育代价’研究”(17BRK027);北京市社会科学基金项目“中国大城市的婚姻变迁”(20SRB009)。

摘　　要：本文利用中国健康与营养调查20余年的9期追踪数据,使用分层生长曲线模型,分析我国女性生育对工资水平及工资增长率的影响,并考察这种影响的长期效应和队列效应。研究结果显示,生育对女性工资率具有显著的负向影响,并且随着女性年龄增长,工资增长速度也随之减缓,显示出生育影响的长期效应;越晚出生的队列,生育对母亲的工资水平及工资增长率的影响均越大;同时,市场部门影响的队列效应更为明显。对于理解20世纪90年代以来我国生育率长期下降和低生育率趋势,分析生育对女性工资水平影响的长期效应和队列效应提供了一个新的视角。本文就如何减少生育对女性工资收入的负向影响提出了相应政策建议,即积极推动《中共中央国务院关于优化生育政策促进人口长期均衡发展的决定》落地见效,通过一揽子社会经济政策完善生育支持的配套措施,加快构建家庭和生育友好型社会。Capitalizing on 9 waves of longitudinal survey data from China Health and Nutrition Survey conducted in more than twenty years,this paper examines women’s childbearing impacts on wage rate and the wage growth rate using hierarchical growth curve model,and investigates the long-term effects and cohort effects of this impact.The results show that there exists a significant negative relationship between childbearing and women’s wage rate,and wage growth rate will slow down along with aging,thus showing a long-term effect of the impact;the later the birth cohort,the greater the impact of childbearing on the level of mother’s wage rate and its growth rate.At the same time,the cohort effect of the market sector is more obvious.The long-term effect and cohort effect of childbearing on women’s wage rate both provide a new perspective for understanding the long-term decline of birth rate and low fertility trend in China since 1990s.This paper puts forward corresponding policy suggestions on how to reduce the negative impact of childbearing on women’s wage income,that is,actively promote the implementation and effectiveness of the decision of the CPC Central Committee and the State Council on Optimizing Fertility Policies and promoting long-term balanced population development,improve the supporting measures to facilitate childbearing through a package of socio-economic policies,and speed up the construction of a family and childbearing friendly society.

关 键 词：生育 工资率 队列效应 分层生长曲线模型 

分 类 号：C812[社会学—统计学]