Quantitative simulation and prediction of extreme geological events  

作　　者：Qiuming CHENG 

机构地区：[1]School of Earth Science and Engineering,Sun Yat-Sen University,Zhuhai 915000,China [2]State Key Lab of Geological Processes and Mineral Resources,China University of Geosciences,Beijing 100083,China

出　　处：《Science China Earth Sciences》2022年第6期1012-1029,共18页中国科学（地球科学英文版）

基　　金：supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 42050103);the Ministry of Science and Technology (Grant No. 2016YFC0600500);the Ministry of Natural Resources and the China Geological Survey (Grant No. DD20160045)。

摘　　要：The systematic study of extreme geological events(such as plate collision and subduction, extreme cold and extreme hot events, biological extinction and revival, earthquakes, volcanoes, mineralization, and oil accumulation) that occurred during the evolution of the earth is essential not only for understanding the “abrupt changes in the evolution of the earth”, but also for an in-depth understanding of the co-evolution of material-life-environment of the livable earth. However, due to the temporal and spatial anomalies and complexity of extreme geological events, classical mathematical models cannot be effectively applied to quantitively describe such events. After comparative studies of many types of geological events, the author found that such extreme geological events often depict “singular” characteristics(abnormal accumulation or depletion of matter or massive release or absorption of energy in a small space or time interval). On this basis, the author proposes a unified definition of extreme geological events, a new concept of “fractal density” and a “local singularity analysis” method for quantitative description and modeling of extreme geological events. Applications of these methods to several types of extreme geological events have demonstrated that the singularity theory and methods developed in the current research can be used as general approaches for the characterization, simulation, and prediction of geological events.

关 键 词：Mathematical geosciences NONLINEARITY Geocomplexity MULTIFRACTALS Chaos Phase transition Multiplicative cascade processes 

分 类 号：P623[天文地球—地质矿产勘探]