基于Bayesian网络的多塔斜拉桥挂篮系统风险分析的新方法  

New risk analysis method based on Bayesian network for hanging basker system of multi-tower cable-stayed bridge

作　　者：王立峰[1] 肖子旺[1] 于赛赛 WANG Li-feng;XIAO Zi-wang;YU Sai-sai(School of Civil Engineering,Northeast Forestry University,Harbin 150040,China)

机构地区：[1]东北林业大学土木工程学院,哈尔滨150040

出　　处：《吉林大学学报（工学版）》2022年第4期865-873,共9页Journal of Jilin University:Engineering and Technology Edition

基　　金：黑龙江省重点研发计划指导类项目(GZ20210206);中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金项目(2572020AW53,2572019CP02)。

摘　　要：为了更好地提高悬浇施工法挂篮系统的安全等级、明确蕴含在挂篮施工过程中的风险因素并合理规避风险,提出了基于Bayesian网络的悬浇多塔斜拉桥挂篮系统动态风险分析的新方法。以孟加拉国PAIRA桥主为例,探讨了挂篮系统的风险概率与风险强度矩阵关系、明确了风险等级判别标准。基于本文方法的预测结果可为悬浇施工桥梁挂篮风险决策及应对措施的选取提供新的思路与参考。In order to better improve the safety level of hanging basket system of cantilever-construction and clarify the risk factors contained in the construction process of hanging basket system and reasonably avoid risks,in this paper,a new Bayesian network-based dynamic risk analysis method for hanging basket system of suspended casting multi-tower cable-stayed bridge is proposed. Also,taking the PAIRA bridge in Bangladesh as an example,the relationship between risk probability and risk intensity matrix of hanging basket system is discussed,the criterion of risk rating is clarified. The prediction results can provide a new idea and reference for the risk decision and the selection of countermeasures of hanging basket system in cantilever-construction bridge.

关 键 词：桥梁工程 多塔斜拉桥 动态风险分析 挂篮系统 BAYESIAN网络 安全性评估 

分 类 号：TU997[建筑科学—市政工程]