农业减税降赋对经济现代化的促进作用——来自取消农业税的证据  

The Promotion Effect of Tax Reduction in Agriculture on Economic Modernization:Evidence from the Abolition of Agricultural Taxes

作　　者：李卓[1,2] 封立涛 Li Zhuo;Feng Litao(Center for Economic Development Research of Wuhan University;Economics and Management school of Wuhan University)

机构地区：[1]武汉大学经济发展研究中心,430072 [2]武汉大学经济与管理学院,430072

出　　处：《经济评论》2022年第3期56-71,共16页Economic Review

基　　金：教育部重点研究基地重大项目“城乡协调发展背景下现代农业发展道路的国际比较研究”(项目编号:16JJD790045)的资助。

摘　　要：本文将取消农业税作为农业减税降赋的准自然实验,从工业发展、城市化和产业结构转型三个方面衡量经济现代化,通过构建两部门一般均衡模型研究取消农业税对经济现代化的影响。基于县级面板数据,采用双重差分法进行实证分析。研究发现取消农业税显著促进了工业发展、城市化和产业结构转型,推动了经济现代化;且这一影响在不同的气候和农作物地区具有异质性;取消农业税主要通过提高农业生产率、推动劳动力转移和扩大内需促进经济现代化。结论表明,农业减税降赋是实现经济现代化的重要路径,未来应该继续通过惠农政策提高农民收入,缩小城乡差距,促进共同富裕。同时,中国通过农业发展促进经济现代化的模式,为其他发展中国家提供了实践经验。This article takes the cancellation of agricultural taxes as a quasi-natural experiment of tax reduction in agriculture,measures economic modernization from three aspects of industrial development,urbanization and industrial structure transformation,and studies the impact of the cancellation of agricultural tax on economic modernization by constructing a two-sector general equilibrium model.Based on county-level panel data,this article uses difference-in-difference method for empirical analysis.The study found that the cancellation of agricultural taxes significantly promoted industrial development,urbanization and industrial structure transformation,and promoted economic modernization.This effect is heterogeneous across different climatic and economic zones.The cancellation of agricultural taxes promotes the modernization of the economy mainly through improving agricultural productivity,labor migration and expanding domestic demand.The conclusion suggests that tax reduction in agriculture is an important path to realize economic modernization.In the future,we should continue to improve farmers’income through preferential agricultural policies to narrow the gap between urban and rural areas,and promote common prosperity.At the same time,the Chinese model of promoting economic modernization through agricultural development has provided practical experience for other developing countries.

关 键 词：共同富裕 经济现代化 农业税 结构转型 

分 类 号：F061.3[经济管理—政治经济学]