企业弹性的测度与判别研究  

The measurement and discriminant analysis of enterprise resilience

作　　者：田丹[1] 唐加福[1] 闫玉 TIAN Dan;TANG Jiafu;YAN Yu(School of Management Science and Engineering,Dongbei University of Finance and Economics,Dalian 116025,China)

机构地区：[1]东北财经大学管理科学与工程学院,大连116025

出　　处：《系统工程理论与实践》2022年第5期1233-1244,共12页Systems Engineering-Theory & Practice

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(71972028,71831003)。

摘　　要：当下环境复杂而不确定,新冠肺炎疫情不仅对政府的公共卫生治理带来挑战,也造成产业供应链中断,从而对企业生存和转型发展带来危机,这就对企业组织的弹性提出了严峻的考验,也成为学者研究的重要问题.现有的学术研究和实践经验表明,弹性是支撑企业度过危机的关键能力,稳定性和应变性是弹性企业的主要特征;稳定性能提高企业运营效率,应变性能提高战略灵活性.本文聚焦于企业弹性的量化研究,从悖论视角分析稳定性与应变性之间的关系,从弹性能力的结果表现出发,选择效率和灵活性作为判别变量;以弹性企业及对照组的财务数据为基础,通过判别分析确定影响企业弹性的变量并构建测度指标,建立企业弹性的计算方法;通过对弹性企业及其对照组的得分计算,发现弹性企业在稳定性与应变性方面得分显著高于对照组,验证了稳定性与应变性之间的悖论关系.这说明弹性企业不是在稳定性与应变性之间做出非此即彼的选择,二者之间存在连续分布的行为空间.因此,弹性企业是以不变应万变,确保在危机中维持生存底线的同时,不断通过变革和创新,以适应不断变化和高度不确定的商业环境.The current environment is complex and uncertain.COVID-19 not only brings challenges to the government’s public health governance,but also disrupts the industrial supply chain and poses a crisis to the survival and transformation development of enterprises,which has raised severe tests to the resilience of enterprises and has also become an important issue for scholars to study.The existing academic research and practical experience show that resilience is the key ability to support enterprises to survive the crisis,and stability and adaptability are the main characteristics of resilient enterprises.Stable performance improves enterprise operation efficiency,and adaptability improves strategic flexibility.This paper focuses on the quantitative study of enterprise resilience,analyzes the relationship between stability and adaptability from the perspective of paradox,and selects efficiency and flexibility as discriminant variables from the outcomes of resilience.Based on the financial data of the resilient enterprises and the control group,the variables affecting the resilience of enterprises were determined by discriminant analysis and the measurement indexes were constructed to establish the calculation method of enterprise resilience.By calculating the scores of resilient enterprises and the control group,it is found that the scores of resilient enterprises are significantly higher than the control group in terms of stability and adaptability,which verifies the paradoxical relationship between them.This shows that the resilient firm is not an either-or choice between stability and adaptability,and there is a continuously distributed behavior space between them.Therefore,resilient enterprises adapt to the changing and highly uncertain business environment through constant change and innovation while maintaining the bottom line of survival in the crisis.

关 键 词：弹性 判别分析 悖论 稳定性 应变性 

分 类 号：F570.6[经济管理—产业经济]