碳中和导向下考虑不确定排放的收费-补贴策略  

Carbon neutrality based toll-subsidy design for road traffic network under emission uncertainty

作　　者：吕莹[1] 李希杰 孙会君[1] 王兴蓉 Lü Ying;LI Xijie;SUN Huijun;WANG Xingrong(Key Laboratory of Transport Industry of Big Data Application Technologies for Comprehensive Transport,Institute of Transportation System Science and Engineering,School of Traffic and Transportation,Beijing Jiaotong University,Beijing 100044,China;Urban Planning&Design Institute of Shenzhen,Shenzhen 518052,China)

机构地区：[1]北京交通大学交通系统科学与工程研究院/交通运输学院综合交通运输行业大数据应用技术重点实验室,北京100044 [2]深圳市城市规划设计研究院有限公司,深圳518052

出　　处：《系统工程理论与实践》2022年第5期1303-1313,共11页Systems Engineering-Theory & Practice

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(72091513,71621001,71971022)。

摘　　要：碳中和导向下,交通系统的碳减排备受关注;同时,机动车排放具有不确定性特征.本文考虑排放评估和管理要求的多重不确定性,构建带有模糊和随机特征的不确定性道路排放约束;建立复杂不确定环境下,求解路段收费/补贴方案的两步模糊随机规划模型(two-step fuzzy stochastic programming method,TFSP),并设计了基于分段线性化的模糊随机非线性优化模型求解算法.使用两个不同规模的路网算例对TFSP模型进行验证,并对不同排放容量限值和风险水平下的路网运行效率和系统排放进行了比较分析.研究结果表明,TFSP模型及算法能够有效地求解带有模糊数和随机变量的非线性规划问题,帮助管理者在复杂不确定性环境下决策兼顾路网运行效率和排放管理要求的路段收费、或是收费补贴相结合的方案.Under the carbon neutrality strategy,the carbon emission reduction of the transportation system has attracted more attention.Meanwhile,the vehicle emissions show uncertainty characteristics.Focusing on the emission evaluation and management requirement under fuzzy and random characteristics,the study develops a two-step fuzzy stochastic programming method(TFSP) for the toll and subsidy design of the road traffic network through introducing the uncertain emission limit constraint.Accordingly,a piecewise linearization based fuzzy stochastic nonlinear solution algorithm is proposed.Two numerical examples are used for testing the method,and the results under different link emission capacities and constraint-violation risks are investigated.It is indicated that the method can help solve the complex nonlinear programming problem with fuzzy and random variables.The generated results can support the optimal plans of the road toll or the combination of toll and subsidy with less network congestion and satisfactory emission management requirement under multiple uncertainties.

关 键 词：碳排放 收费补贴 不确定性 分段线性 

分 类 号：U-9[交通运输工程]