气候变化对广东沙田柚种植气候区划的影响  

Impacts of Climate Change on Climatic Division for Shatian Pomelo Planting in Guangdong Province

作　　者：张柳红 梁敏妍[2] 杜尧东[1] Zhang Liuhong;Liang Minyan;Du Yaodong(Guangdong Climate Center,Guangzhou 510640,China;Jiangmen Meteorological Office of Guangdong Province,Jiangmen 529030,China)

机构地区：[1]广东省气候中心,广州510640 [2]江门市气象局,广东江门529030

出　　处：《气象与环境科学》2022年第3期43-50,共8页Meteorological and Environmental Sciences

基　　金：中国气象局气候变化专项(CCSF202012);华南区域(广东省)气候变化创新团队(GRMCTD202101);广东省气象局科技项目(GRMC2020Q05)。

摘　　要：基于广东省86个气象站19612019年观测资料和1∶25万基础地理数据,根据沙田柚对气候条件的要求,建立广东沙田柚气候区划指标体系和空间分布模型,运用线性趋势拟合、累积距平等方法,分析区划因子时间变化特征,借助ArcGIS从19611990年、19712000年、19812010年和19912019年4个时段研究气候变化对广东沙田柚种植区域及其面积的影响。结果表明:1961―2019年间,广东年平均气温、1月和7月平均气温、极端最高和最低气温、≥10℃年积温和年降雨量呈上升趋势,各气候因子突变年份大都在20世纪90年代。广东沙田柚种植气候最适宜区和适宜区主要分布在北部地区,次适宜区主要是南部地区,不适宜区在粤北高寒山区;受气候变化影响,最适宜区和适宜区面积下降且分布区域北移,次适宜区明显北扩,不适宜区面积增大但增幅较小。与19611990年相比,19712000年、19812010年和19912019年广东沙田柚种植气候适宜区面积分别缩小了0.81×10^(6)、2.49×10^(6)和3.00×10^(6) hm^(2),次适宜区面积分别增大1.54×10^(6)、2.88×10^(6)和3.48×10^(6) hm^(2),最适宜区和不适宜区面积变幅分别为0.65×10^(6)~0.82×10^(6) hm^(2)和0.09×10^(6)~0.25×10^(6) hm^(2)。Based on ArcGIS,the impact of climate change on climatic division for Shatian pomelo planting in Guangdong is studied from the periods of 19611990,19712000,19812010 and 19912019;according to the requirement of Shatian pomelo cultivar to the climatic conditions,the observational data from 86 weather stations in the past 59 years as well as the 1∶250000 topographic maps in Guang-dong,the climate division index system and spatial distribution model of Shatian pomelo planting in Guangdong are established;and the temporal changes of climate division indicators are analyzed using the methods of linear regression,accumulative anomaly and so on.The results show that the annual average temperature,the January average temperature,the July average temperature,the extreme maximum tem-perature,the extreme minimum temperature,the≥10℃accumulated temperature and the annual pre-cipitation in Guangdong were trending up from 1961 to 2019,and most of their climatic mutation years were in the 1990s.The optimal region and suitable region were distributed in northern Guangdong,to-gether with the sub-suitable region and unfit region were located mainly in southern Guangdong and alpine mountain area of northern Guangdong,respectively.Due to climate change,areas of the optimal region and suitable region were decreased,heading northwards,and the sub-suitable region showed obvious northward expansion,while the unfit region had slight increase in area.Relative to that in 19611990,the areas of suitable region in 19712000,19812010 and 19912019 had shrunk by 0.81×10^(6),2.49×10^(6) and 3.00×10^(6) hm^(2),respectively,but the areas of sub-suitable region increased by 1.54×10^(6),2.88×10^(6) and 3.48×10^(6) hm^(2),respectively.The ranges of area change for the optimal region and unfit region were 0.65×10^(6) to 0.82×10^(6) hm^(2) and 0.09×10^(6) to 0.25×10^(6) hm^(2),respectively.

关 键 词：气候变化 沙田柚 气候区划 广东省 气候态 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]