全球经济失衡的影响因素研究  

A Study on the Influence Factors of Global Economic Imbalances

作　　者：张向达[1] 胡森晨 林洪羽 梁超 Zhang Xiangda;Hu Senchen;Lin Hongyu;Liang Chao

机构地区：[1]东北财经大学公共管理学院

出　　处：《宏观经济研究》2022年第4期95-104,共10页Macroeconomics

基　　金：2019年国家社科基金项目“民生性财政支出的社会安全治理效应测度及其提升路径研究”(19BTJ043)的资助。

摘　　要：储蓄投资缺口与财政赤字、国际货币体系演化,以及国际分工与比较优势,构成了当前有关全球经济失衡成因与影响因素分析的基本视角。根据目前全球经济失衡影响因素分析及理论框架的设定,本文构建了包含171个国家(地区)1990—2019年数据的面板数据模型,就全球经济失衡的主要影响因素进行了实证检验。结果发现,在所考察的时期和范围内,全球经济失衡的形成原因可以从市场调节、制度设计和格局变化等找寻,而诸如储蓄率、政府财政收支和金融发展等关键变量,也对全球经济失衡的形成有着显著的影响。同时,实证检验结果表明,贸易开放度和汇率水平可能并未对全球经济失衡造成显著的影响;对于发达国家而言,“双赤字”的情形可能是存在的,但对于发展中国家而言则不存在,且金融发展水平提升可能是提升经常项目余额水平的原因。The savings-investment gap and fiscal deficit,the evolution of the international monetary system,and the international division of labor and comparative advantage constitute the basic perspective on the current analysis of the causes and influence factors of global economic imbalances.Based on the current analysis of the influence factors of global economic imbalances and the setting of the theoretical framework,this paper constructs a panel data model containing data from 171 countries(regions)from 1990-2019 to conduct an empirical test on the main influence factors of global economic imbalances.The results find that the causes of global economic imbalances can be found in market regulation,institutional design and pattern changes in the examined period and scope,while key variables such as savings rate,government fiscal balance and financial development also have significant effects on the formation of global economic imbalances.At the same time,the empirical results suggest that trade openness and exchange rate levels may not have a significant impact on global imbalances;the’double deficits’may exist for developed countries but not for developing countries,and the increase in financial development may be responsible for the increase in the level of current account balances.

关 键 词：全球经济发展 经济失衡 面板数据模型 

分 类 号：F113[经济管理—国际贸易]