混合型货币政策规则及其宏观调控效应  

Mixed Monetary Policy Rules and Its Macro-Control Effects

作　　者：刘金全[1] 郑荻 Liu Jin-quan;Zheng Di(Quantitative Economics Center,Jilin University,Changchun Jilin 130012)

机构地区：[1]吉林大学数量经济研究中心,吉林长春130012

出　　处：《经济纵横》2022年第2期121-128,共8页Economic Review Journal

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目“健全目标优化、分工合理、高效协同的宏观经济治理体系的理论与实践研究”(编号:21ZDA042);国家社会科学基金后期资助暨优秀博士论文项目“中国经济周期波动的基本态势、收敛特征与经济政策调控机制研究”(编号:20FJYB007)的成果。

摘　　要：本文基于中央银行数量与价格工具协调并用的事实,分别构造了“量主价辅”“价主量辅”和“量价并行”三种形式的混合型货币政策规则,并利用包含粘性价格和预期冲击的NK-DSGE模型,对比不同规则下各货币政策的宏观调控效应,结果发现:中央银行更关注利率政策的持续性和一致性,而对货币供应量的调控则更多是出于相机目的;预期冲击的引入能有效提高货币政策对产出和通胀的调控力度,预期管理将在价格型政策中发挥更加重要的作用;包含预期的“量价并行”规则是当前阶段最符合我国宏观调控需要的混合型货币政策规则,且利率政策权重系数要显著大于货币数量权重系数,说明在当前我国实行的混合型货币政策中,价格型工具已经开始起主导作用。Based on the fact that the People’s Bank of China coordinates the use of quantity and price tool,this paper constructs three forms of mixed policy rules:“quantity-based price assistance”,“price-based quantity assistance”and“quantity-price parallel”and uses the NK-DSGE model that includes sticky prices and anticipated shocks to compare the macroeconomic effects under different rules.The results show that:first,the central bank pays more attention to the continuity and consistency of policy benchmark interest rate,while the implementation of the money supply is more for discretion purposes;second,the introduction of anticipated shocks can effectively increase the monetary policy’s effects over output and inflation.At the same time,the public expectations are more sensitive to changes in interest rates than to changes in the quantity of money,which indicates that expectation management will play a more important role in price-based policies.Third,the expected“quantity and price parallel”rule is the optimal monetary policy rule that best meets China’s macroeconomic needs at this stage.Among them,the interest rate policy weight coefficient is significantly greater than the money quantity weight coefficient,indicating that in the current mixed monetary policy implemented in China,price-based instruments have begun to play a leading role.

关 键 词：货币政策 混合型规则 预期冲击 NK-DSGE模型 

分 类 号：F822.0[经济管理—财政学]