中国地级市工业全要素生产率的局部测度研究  

Calculating China’s Industrial TFP at the Prefecture Level Using Spatial Econometric Local Analysis

作　　者：郭爱君[1] 范巧[1,2] Guo Aijun;Fan Qiao(School of Economics,Lanzhou University;School of Economics and Social Studies,Chongqing University of Science&Technology)

机构地区：[1]兰州大学经济学院 [2]重庆科技学院法政与经贸学院

出　　处：《数量经济技术经济研究》2022年第6期61-80,共20页Journal of Quantitative & Technological Economics

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目“黄河流域高质量发展下兰州—西宁城市群产业空间结构优化研究”(20XJL008)的资助。

摘　　要：研究目标:实现对中国地级市工业全要素生产率的局部测度。研究方法:基于嵌入PGTWR模型的索洛余值法改进方法,从空间计量局部分析视角测度了2003~2019年中国280个地级市的工业全要素生产率及其增长率,并基于核密度估计对整体及分区域板块视角下中国地级市工业全要素生产率的时空演变规律性做出了阐释。研究发现:中国地级市工业全要素生产率的时空演变规律及其在东、中、西及东北板块、南北方板块等分区域视角下的演变规律稍有不同,但基本上呈现出“先增长再降低再缓慢恢复”的发展态势。研究创新:利用局部测度方法科学地测度了中国地级市工业全要素生产率。研究价值:推动了空间计量局部分析在中国地级市工业全要素生产率测度中的科学应用。Research Objectives:To calculate China’s industrial TFP at the prefecture level effectively.Research Methods:This paper calculates the industrial TFP and its growth rate of 280 prefecture level cities in China from 2003 to 2019 using the spatial econometric local analysis,which is constructed based on the improved Solow residual method with PGTWR model embedded,and explains their spatial and temporal evolution regularity from the perspective of overall and sub-regional plates based on kernel density estimation.Research Findings:The spatial and temporal evolution law of the industrial TFP in prefecture level cities in China as a whole are slightly different from the laws of its subregions such as the East,middle,West,and Northeast China,and the South and North plate,but there is a basically development trend of“first growth,then reduction,and then slow recovery”.Research Innovations:This paper calculates China’s industrial TFP at the prefecture level effectively.Research Value:It promotes the scientific application of the spatial econometric local analysis in the calculation of China’s industrial TFP at the prefecture level.

关 键 词：工业全要素生产率 面板时空地理加权回归模型 索洛余值法 核密度估计 

分 类 号：F064.1[经济管理—政治经济学]