江西省城市住宅地价时空演变特征及其影响因素  

Spatio-temporal Evolution and Influencing Factors of Urban Residential Land Price in Jiangxi Province

作　　者：钟京莹 石小亮[2] 阳海鸥[1] ZHONG Jing-ying;SHI Xiao-liang;YANG Hai-ou(College of Tourism and Geography,Jiujiang University,Jiujiang 332005,China;College of Economics and Management,Shenyang Agricultural University,Shenyang 110866,China)

机构地区：[1]九江学院旅游与地理学院,江西九江332005 [2]沈阳农业大学经济管理学院,辽宁沈阳110866

出　　处：《土壤通报》2022年第2期280-289,共10页Chinese Journal of Soil Science

基　　金：江西省社会科学基金(20GL42);江西省教育厅科技项目(GJJ190919);江西省高校人文社会科学项目(JY19243)资助。

摘　　要：【目的】以江西省为研究区域,探索城市住宅地价的时空演变特征和影响因素,为城市土地市场宏观调控提供参考。【方法】利用2008~2019年江西省11个地级市住宅用地招标、拍卖、挂牌出让数据,采用空间自相关方法分析城市住宅地价的时空演变特征,利用空间面板计量模型探究城市住宅地价的主要影响因素。【结果】(1)2008~2019年江西省城市住宅地价整体呈现快速上涨的趋势,年平均增长率达14.57%,平均增长2952.96元m^(-2)。(2)江西省城市住宅地价呈东北高西南低的空间分布特征,局域空间离散特征稳定,以低-高集聚类型为主。(3)社会消费品零售总额、城市绿化覆盖率、城镇居民人均可支配收入和城市人口密度是影响江西省城市住宅地价时空演变的关键变量,对城市住宅地价具有显著的直接效应,其中社会消费品零售总额和城镇居民人均可支配收入对相邻城市也具有显著的间接效应。【结论】江西省城市住宅地价不仅受本地社会消费品零售总额、城市绿化覆盖率、城镇居民人均可支配收入和城市人口密度的影响,还受到相邻地市社会消费品零售总额和城镇居民人均可支配收入的影响。因此,“因城施策,分类指导”和“全省统筹,城市联动”是推动江西省土地市场健康平稳发展的可行途径。[Objective]The purpose of this study was to discusses the spatio-temporal evolution of urban residential land price and its main influencing factors in Jiangxi Province.[Method]The spatial autocorrelation method was used to reveal the spatial differentiation and correlation characteristic,and the spatial panel measurement model was used to explore the main influencing factors.[Result]Results showed that:(1)From an overall perspective,the urban residential land price was increasing fast with average annual growth rate of 14.57%and average increase of 2952.96 yuan m^(-2) from 2008 to 2019.(2)The urban residential land price presented high in the northeast and low in the southwest.And the local-spatial clustering pattern was dominated by Low-High clustering model with the characteristics of stronger stability.(3)Indices including retail sales of consumer goods,urban green coverage rate,disposable income and urban population density had significant direct effects on the urban residential land prices.The retail sales of consumer goods and disposable income also had significant indirect effects on the neighboring cities.[Conclusion]The urban residential land price in Jiangxi Province is affected not only by local factors including retail sales of consumer goods,urban green coverage rate,disposable income and urban population density,but also by factors in neighboring cities,such as retail sales of consumer goods and disposable income.Therefore,“City-Specific,Classified-Guidance”and“Coordinate-Provincial,City-Cooperative”policies should be made to promote land market develop healthy and steady in Jiangxi Province.

关 键 词：住宅地价 空间自相关 空间计量模型 时空演变 江西 

分 类 号：F301[经济管理—产业经济]