数字金融发展对农村金融机构经营风险的影响——基于金融监管强度调节效应的分析  

The Impact of Digital Finance Development on the Operational Risks of Rural Financial Institutions:A Study Based on the Moderating Effect of Financial Supervision Intensity

作　　者：张岳 周应恒 ZHANG Yue;ZHOU Yingheng

机构地区：[1]南京农业大学经济管理学院 [2]江西财经大学经济学院

出　　处：《中国农村经济》2022年第4期64-82,共19页Chinese Rural Economy

基　　金：国家自然科学基金重点项目“新时期农业发展的国家政策支持体系研究”(编号:71333008);国家社会科学基金重点项目“我国农业保险高质量发展研究”(编号:19AZD011)、国家社会科学基金重大项目“农村集体产权制度改革深化与经济发展研究”(编号:20ZDA045)的资助。

摘　　要：作为中国金融体系的重要组成部分,农村金融机构一直承担着服务“三农”的重大任务。数字金融在农村地区的稳定发展,会对农村金融机构经营风险产生何种影响?如何调整监管强度才能够更快实现数字金融与传统农村金融机构和谐发展?本文基于农村金融机构的特点梳理数字金融发展对农村金融机构经营风险的影响机制,并以全国范围内283家农村金融机构2011-2019年非平衡面板数据进行实证分析。研究发现,数字金融发展对农村金融机构经营风险存在倒U型影响,随着数字金融发展水平提高,农村金融机构经营风险先上升后下降。金融监管强度在数字金融发展水平与农村金融机构经营风险之间发挥调节作用,随着金融监管强度提高,数字金融发展水平与农村金融机构经营风险之间关系的曲线趋向平缓,同时两者之间关系的曲线拐点向左移动。进一步分析发现,数字金融发展促进了农村金融机构数字化转型,且这种促进作用存在边际效应递增的非线性特征。以上结论对今后推动普惠金融发展、优化政府角色定位、稳定农村金融市场具有启示意义。As an important part of China’s financial system,rural financial institutions have been undertaking the major task of serving agriculture,rural areas and farmers.In recent years,digital finance has achieved stable development in rural areas.In this context,what impact can the stable development of digital finance in rural areas have on the operational risks of rural financial institutions?How to adjust the intensity of supervision to realize the harmonious development of digital finance and rural traditional financial institutions?Based on the characteristics of rural financial institutions,this article analyzes the theoretical mechanism of digital finance development on the operational risks of rural financial institutions.The study conducts an empirical test based on the unbalanced panel data of 283 rural financial institutions nationwide from 2011 to 2019.The study finds that,firstly,there is an"inverted U-shaped"curve relationship between the development level of digital finance and the operational risks of rural financial institutions.With the development of digital finance,the operational risks of rural financial institutions increase firstly and then decrease.Secondly,financial supervision plays a regulatory role in the relationship between the development level of digital finance and the operational risks of rural financial institutions.The higher the intensity of financial supervision,the flatter the curve between the development level of digital finance and the operational risks of rural financial institutions,and the inflection point of the curve moves to the left.Thirdly,further analysis finds that digital finance promotes digital transformation of rural financial institutions,and this promotion effect has a nonlinear characteristic of increasing marginal effect.The above conclusions have implications for promoting the development of inclusive finance,optimizing the government role and stabilizing rural financial market in the future.

关 键 词：数字金融 监管强度 经营风险 数字化转型 

分 类 号：F832.5[经济管理—金融学]