崛起国如何研判霸权国结盟的可能性  

How Does a Rising Power Estimate the Possibility of a Hegemon’s Alliance Formation?

作　　者：黄宇兴 Huang Yuxing(Department of International Relations,Tsinghua University)

机构地区：[1]清华大学国际关系学系,北京100084

出　　处：《世界经济与政治》2022年第5期77-100,157,158,共26页World Economics and Politics

基　　金：清华大学自主科研计划“权力转移背景下的联盟研判”(项目批准号:2021THZWJC16)资助。

摘　　要：权力转移是崛起国与霸权国之间权力消长的过程。霸权国可通过与其他国家结盟的方式在较短时间内改变自身与崛起国的力量对比。因此,崛起国对霸权国结盟可能性的研判直接影响其策略选择。关于霸权国结盟的可能性,崛起国正确或错误研判的条件是什么?在既有理论的基础上,作者提出“意识形态匹配”理论,以崛起国、霸权国和霸权国的潜在盟国间的意识形态匹配情况解释崛起国对“霸权国结盟研判”的正误。在崛起国开始研判后,若霸权国与其潜在盟国意识形态不同而崛起国与霸权国的潜在盟国意识形态相同,崛起国会高估霸权国与其潜在盟国结盟的可能性。若霸权国与其潜在盟国意识形态相同而崛起国与霸权国的潜在盟国意识形态不同,崛起国会低估霸权国与其潜在盟国结盟的可能性。若崛起国、霸权国和霸权国的潜在盟国的意识形态均不同或均相同,崛起国将可以正确估计霸权国与其潜在盟国结盟的可能性。1935—1936年,德国和法国分别是欧洲的崛起国和霸权国。为应对德国的崛起,法国分别试图与意大利、英国和苏联结盟。德国高估了法意结盟的可能性,低估了英法结盟的可能性,但正确估计了法苏结盟的可能性。因此,意识形态匹配情况为崛起国研判霸权国结盟的可能性提供了“基线”。Power transition is a process in which a power shift occurs between a rising power and a hegemon.The hegemon may seek alignments with other powers,and thus,readdress the balance of power vis-à-vis the rising power in a short run.Therefore,a rising power’s estimates on the possibility of the hegemon’s alignment formation shapes the rising power’s strategic choices.When does the rising power make correct or wrong estimates on this possibility?The power transition theory,foreign policy theories and alliance theories provide key insights in addressing the question,but none provides an adequate answer.Based upon these theories,I argue ideological matching among the rising power(R),the hegemon(H)and the hegemon’s potential allies(A)shapes R’s estimates of a H-A alignment.If H and A do not share a common ideology but R and A are of a similar ideology,then R is likely to overestimate the possibility a H-A alignment.If H and A share an ideological affiliation but R and A hold different ideologies,then R is likely to underestimate the possibility a H-A alignment.If neither H-A nor R-A is of a similar ideology,or if H,R,and A share a common ideology,then R is more likely to correctly estimate the possibility a HAalignment.The ideological matching theory is evaluated based upon the power transition between Germany and France(1935-1936).To deal with the German resurgence,France sought to align with Italy,Britain,and the Soviet Union.Germany overestimated the possibility of a Franco-Italian alliance,underestimated the possibility of an Anglo-Franco alliance,and correctly estimated the possibility of a Franco-Soviet alliance.Ideological matching thus becomes a baseline of a rising power to judge the prospect of a hegemon’s alignment formation.

关 键 词：权力转移 意识形态 联盟 外交研判 第二次世界大战 

分 类 号：D80[政治法律—政治学] D815[政治法律—外交学]